How do the Miami Marlins compare to our division rivals?

The Miami Marlins were expected to compete for a playoff spot this season and The Fish are living up to the expectations. Miami is currently sitting in second place in the NL East with a 12-12 record. Let’s dig a bit deeper though…

The Miami Marlins are a potential playoff team.

The New York Mets are in first place with an 18-9 record and at the moment seem to be living up to their own lofty expectations. The reigning world and division champs Atlanta Braves are in third place at 12-15, followed by the Philadelphia Phillies at 11-14 and the Washington Nationals in last place at 9-17.

I think that we can safely expect the Miami Marlins to finish ahead of Washington, who are clearly a last place team. Let’s see how The Fish compare to the others in runs per game though: The Fish have a below average 4.08, with both Philly and the Mets ahead at an above average 4.44. Atlanta is in last place with 3.96. We already covered our hitting woes. 

Team ERA is more interesting, with The Fish at an above average 3.55,  behind the Mets at 3.21, but ahead of Philly at 3.90 and Atlanta at 4.08. Just to compare, Washington is at a horrible 4.89. The Miami Marlins are an elite pitching team this season.

There is another interesting metric to consider… Pythagorean win-loss records. Miami are still 12-12 with 98 runs scored and 95 allowed. The New York Mets are now 17-10 with 120 runs scored and 89 allowed. Philly is now 13-12 with 111 runs scored and 196 allowed. Atlanta is 13-14 with 107 runs scored and 115 allowed.

The above statistics show that the Miami Marlins should be in third place and Philadelphia should be in second. That’s a concern, but the win difference is still minor, and shows just how close this division actually is. It really wouldn’t be surprising if Miami stayed in second.

I‘m not going to dig deeper for now as it’s still too early in the season. We can already tell however that while the Mets are pulling away, the Miami Marlins have a legitimate shot at a Wild Card and have the pitching to get it done. Once again the question is if the hitting can get its job done. Assuming the hitting improves, a second place finish in the division and a potential Wild Card are doable goals for The Fish.