Miami Marlins are unlucky…but still too good for this

You may remember our article about how unlucky the Miami Marlins have been this season. It seems that the recent series with the Philadelphia Phillies really accentuated this issue. Whether it was managing by Don Mattingly or just plain bad luck, Tanner Scott blowing his first save of the season to of all people Philadelphia’s backup catcher Garrett Stubbs is just completely unacceptable. Just how unlucky are our Miami Marlins?

Bad luck is beginning to define this Miami Marlins season.

Bad luck has been following the Miami Marlins all season. Remember what a Pythagorean Win-Loss record is? It’s a team’s projected record based on runs scored. Let’s look at some examples… the New York Mets are at 41-23, but “should be” 38-26 based on their Pythagorean W-L record. The Atlanta Braves are 37-27 but “should be” 36-28. The New York Yankees are 46-16 but “should be” 45-17. Get the idea? What about the Miami Marlins? We’re at 28-33 but “should be” 33-28. That’s significantly different.

While other teams have only a slight difference in their record, the Miami Marlins go from a team that’s below .500 to a team definitely over .500. The Fish go from a team on the outskirts of a playoff team to definite playoff contenders. That’s a pretty big difference to say the least.

The New York Mets are 8-7 in one-run games; the Atlanta Braves are also 8-7 in those games; the Philadelphia Phillies are 6-10, the New York Yankees are an amazing 13-4; the Los Angeles Dodgers are 4-7 in such games. The Miami Marlins? We’re an atrocious 8-16! A record close to .500 is well “average” and expected, The Fish are doing well worse than average. My personal opinion is that luck plays a big role in one-run games…

The Miami Marlins are clearly much better than our record indicates. Once things start evening out with luck (they should right?), a winning streak should get us closer to the final Wild Card spot. What if it isn’t just bad luck? What if it’s bad managing? Unfortunately we can only find out which it is if things don’t change before the end of the season.