Is Trevor Rogers back as the Miami Marlins ace?

I wrote a lot about Trevor Rogers this season, but it’s time to take a look at him again in time for tonight’s start. The starting pitcher was phenomenal in 2021, going 7 wins 8 losses with a 2.64 ERA/2.55 FIP in 25 games and 133.0 innings. Let’s take a look at what happened this season…

Trevor Rogers may be coming back to last season’s Cy Young form.

Trevor Rogers hadn’t been good for the Miami Marlins this season, he has a 4 wins and 7 losses record with a 5.57 ERA/4.66 FIP in 16 games and 72.2 innings pitched. I don’t think that it needs an explanation to see how bad this season has been for him.

Is it possible that Trevor Rogers turning things around?? Rogers has a 3.72 ERA for the month of July so far, with a 3.41 FIP and an improved 22.5 K% (he has a 20.3% for the first half). That certainly looks a lot better than his performance this season otherwise.

Trevor Rogers had a 94.6 MPH fastball last season, and now has a 94.7 MPH fastball. That’s actually an improvement. He did have his swinging percentage go down from 14.0% last season to 11.0% this season. Hitters hit at his pitches 81.2% of the time inside the strike zone, which is worse than his 79.1% from last season.

Hitters hit his pitches 67.8% of the time outside the strike zone, and 52.5% of the time last season. Hitters hit his pitches at a 71.2% percentage last season, and 76.9% of the time this season. Inside the strike zone, they actually swung more too: 65.6% last season and 68.0% of the time this season.

Trevor Rogers had a 10.62 K/9 rate last season, and has an 8.30 K/9 rate this season. HR/9 is a real problem for him however, as he had 0.41 last season and has 1.24 this season. It seems to me that hitters have been more willing to swing at his pitches this season, and clearly connect more as well. As I said before, I think that he’s tipping his pitches.

Tonight, Trevor Rogers is on the mound as the Miami Marlins take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Which version of Trevor Rogers will show up? Will it be last season’s version or this season’s?