Big 4 SS‘s for the Miami Marlins: Carlos Correa

This is part one in a new series about the top four free agent shortstops available in free agency this off-season. Will the Miami Marlins sign any? Most likely not, though Bruce Sherman promised to spend and should. We need to upgrade our historically bad offense and SS is a major area for us to upgrade. Miguel Rojas is a great defender, but is not that good offensively. He’s also not the middle of the order bat that we need. Is Carlos Correa the solution?

Will Carlos Correa be the next Miami Marlins SS?

The Minnesota Twins signed him so there should be no excuses from Miami Marlins management, or it‘s just Bruce Sherman‘s initials. Carlos Correa produced 5.4 WAR with a .291/.366/.467 batting line and 22 home runs and 64 RBI in 136 games and 522 AB. He also had 1.1 dWAR, which was down from 2.9 last season but still very impressive.

Carlos Correa is still only 28 years old and a projected 7 or 8 year deal shouldn’t be too excessive. The question is how much would he get on average annual value? $30 Million seems like the average price. It’s hard to believe that he can get the $35 million he’s currently getting per year, then again why would he take a pay cut annually?

If Carlos Correa expects $35 million a year, the Miami Marlins and a lot of other teams have to seriously pause as that’s just way too much. The offensive production isn’t good enough to warrant that much money per year. You can argue that as long as his WAR is 5.4 or close like this season then he’d be worth it. You can also argue that inflation means that this is the new norm.

What‘s Carlos Correa actually worth? My guess is 7 years $25 million-$30 million is fair. This of course makes his actual likely contract not a significant overpay. You have to also assume that avoiding overpays is impossible in free agency, when it comes to the top players.

Should the Miami Marlins pursue Carlos Correa? Yes. Will we? Unfortunately I‘m not getting my hopes up. If we want to improve our lineup and upgrade at SS however, he’s a great solution.