The Miami Marlins will have one less division rival

The Miami Marlins may be losing a major division rival next season. I covered this before in part one and part two about the NL East. Steve Cohen is a good owner and is willing to spend on the New York Mets, but money isn’t always enough, just look at the Los Angeles Angels. The Mets have a pretty busy off-season ahead with ace Jacob deGrom, starting pitcher Chris Bassitt, closer Edwin Diaz and centerfielder Brandon Nimmo all hitting free agency. That’s just the beginning…

The Miami Marlins can worry less about the New York Mets next season.

The Miami Marlins are in a tough division but the New York Mets… are the New York Mets and bad things are on the horizon for them. Their rotation could lose Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt. Bassitt shouldn’t be hard to adequately replace, but you can’t really replace deGrom. Even if they re-sign him, he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2019 due to injuries and is in his mid 30’s now, chances of him falling apart are pretty high.

Max Scherzer is 38 years old and you can count on one hand how many pitchers his age have been aces at that age. It’s not a matter of “if”, but “when” he finally declines. He spent some time on the IL and only pitched 145.1 innings this season. You can’t honestly expect him to be a “workhorse” in 2023 and the chances of him declining are very high.

The New York Mets had the best closer in the game in Edwin Diaz this season, but he’s been incredibly inconsistent with them and is a very obvious “contract year player”. If they re-sign him, he’s likely to be back to his inconsistent self, but would now be overpaid on top of that. If they replace him, the replacement is unlikely to be as good as he was this season. Their bullpen is pretty average otherwise, barring some additions.

Losing Brandon Nimmo will be a big blow in a weak CF market, so they can move the declining Starling Marte there, despite him being below average there defensively. If they re-sign Nimmo, he’s too injury-prone to count on and would now be overpaid. It’s bad no matter how you look at it.

The New York Mets have a rotation that depends on re-signing or replacing an injury-prone ace and a mid-rotation arm, while their other ace is a major durability and decline risk. They’re going to be worse at closer, be worse defensively and still need a catcher. They could use help in the corner outfield and DH as well. Will Steve Cohen want to stay over the luxury tax? What happens if they overpay and then can’t avoid being over it to improve other areas? The New York Mets are closer to falling apart then contending, no amount of money can change that.