2. Trea Turner, SS
8 years/$300 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers
I wrote about Trea Turner before and had to defend my view that he’s not a good fit for the Miami Marlins. He’s a good, even great player. The problem is that I just don’t see him as a wise investment. He’s going to be 30 next season and speedsters don’t age well. 2-3 years into his deal, he’s going to be a shadow of himself. Paying close to $40 million a year for 5 years to a player who no longer has his biggest asset is insanity.
Don’t think that I’m underestimating Trea Turner though. He is an elite shortstop who batted .298/.343/.466 in 2022 with a 4.9 WAR He “only” hit 21 home runs this season, and his highest total has been 28. He also continues to steal less bases each season. It is a likely possibility that he will steal more with the new larger bases next season.
Turner batted .311/.361/.509 since 2018 and is a pretty good defender, who can also play second base and centerfield. This versatility may create some currently unexpected suitors, but I suspect that the Los Angeles Dodgers won’t let him go and will just re-sign him. He has a good case for 7-8 years and will likely command $35 million plus a season, as that AAV benchmark has already been established by Carlos Correa last off-season. Trea has a QO attached, but it won’t affect his market.
The Philadelphia Phillies are another team that could be in on Turner, but I feel that another player is likelier for them. The Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants should be in on him too, but the former probably can’t afford him and the latter are only likely if they fail to sign Aaron Judge.