Top 20 free agents & where they’ll sign part 1

The Miami Marlins need to spend more money in free agency, and there’s definitely a road to the playoffs in 2023. We will probably do more in trades than in free agency, but it’s still intriguing to see who will sign where. Let’s take a look at the top 20 free agents and where they will probably sign, as well as for how much.

The Miami Marlins will be involved in a busy free agent market headlined by Aaron Judge.

1. Aaron Judge, RF 

8 years/$320 million with the San Francisco Giants.

I wrote about Aaron Judge before and I think that my point still stands. Judge turned down a 7 year/$213.5MM contract extension from the New York Yankees before the season, but has since batted .311/.425/.686 with 62 HR and 131 RBI in 157 games and 570 AB. He produced a remarkable 10.6 WAR to top it all off.

Aaron Judge also set a new American League home run record in the process, as well as the non-steroid MLB home run record. He even played well in CF, despite RF being his natural position, and one that he will almost certainly sign to play with his next contract.

He could’ve had a case for 10 years if he was younger, but 8 years seems like the longest he can do being 31 years old next season. Judge received a qualifying offer, but will obviously reject it and it won’t affect his market. Judge’s shaky health history (he missed more than half of his career on the IL), and has a reputation is injury-prone. The fact that he was so bad during the playoffs (and even got booed at Yankee Stadium), will give GM Brian Cashman some excuse in potentially failing to keep him in New York.

I suspect that the New York Yankees leaked his last contract offer to have an excuse not to re-sign him. Judge was understandably pretty upset, add that he was missing with the bat during the playoffs when needed, and the Bronx Bombers let somebody else take the risk. The San Francisco Giants are his hometown team basically and badly need bats, while having the desire to spend as well. My guess is he ends up going home.

3. Carlos Correa, SS

10 years/$320 million with the Chicago Cubs

There is a case to be made that Carlos Correa is actually better than Trea Turner, but either way both are elite shortstops who will command historically high contracts. The big difference between the two is that Turner is better offensively and is older, while Correa is better defensively and is younger.

Correa batted .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs in 522 AB in 136 games. He was also worth 5.4 WAR. Correa actually outperformed Trea Turner in WAR and should be pursued by the same teams as him.

The Minnesota Twins management has highly rated Correa’s defense and his part in team chemistry. It seems that they see him as a clubhouse leader and want him back. That said,  they never gave out a contract of such magnitude before and I suspect that they won’t this time.

The San Francisco Giants are contenders for his services, but if they sign Aaron Judge then I don’t see them signing two players for over $600 million. Philly are leading contenders, but again I see a different “big 4” SS signing with them. The Boston Red Sox would make sense, but they don’t seem to want to spend much money.

The Baltimore Orioles might think that signing him would help them become contenders faster, but it’s too big of a contract to predict them to give out at the moment. The Chicago Cubs on the other hand have been linked to Correa and supposedly “love him”. Considering that they’re a big market team and the fanbase is getting impatient about their low spending, they may go ahead and sign him.

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS

7 years/$190 million with the Philadelphia Phillies 

Xander Bogaerts is the SS that I see signing with Philly. The reason is that they often overlook defense and GM Dave Dombrowski also knows Bogaerts from his own days in Boston. In fact, they’re already reported to have serious interest in signing him. I certainly don’t see Boston re-signing him, after insulting him and signing his replacement a year early. I think that Bogaerts to Philly makes a lot of sense.

Xander actually did better than both Trea Turner and Carlos Correa, producing 5.8 WAR along with a 307/.377/.456 batting line in 150 games and 557 AB. It’s still a wonder that Boston’s offer during Spring Training was to just add a year and $30 million to his team-friendly 4 year/$120 million deal.

If there’s a red flag with Xander Bogaerts, it’s that he only hit 15 home runs, with his power actually declining in 2022. On the plus side, he had the best defensive season of his career (1.3 dWAR). It’s ironic that Bogaerts’s defense was seen as a red flag in recent seasons.

Bogaerts will play next season at 30 years old by the way, so he can still get 7 or even 8 years on the open market. All of that said, his history of poor defense and a decline in power can be a cap on his earning potential of sorts. I do expect both Trea Turner and Carlos Correa to ultimately make more money and get more years than him this off-season. A QO won’t affect his value.

5. Dansby Swanson, SS

7 years/$154 million with the San Francisco Giants

Dansby Swanson is the final of the “big 4” shortstops and the “cheapest” among them as well. Swanson is coming off a 5.7 WAR .277/.329/.447 season in which he hit 25 home runs and drove in 96 RBI in 162 games and 640 AB.

Swanson’s 2022 output is a bit questionable, considering his career .255/.321/.417 batting line and a .348 BABIP, while having a .313 career BABIP. Swanson isn’t that good of a hitter, but defensively he’s a stud. He had a 2.0 dWAR and won a NL Gold Glove at SS in 2022.

The red flags with Dansby Swanson are pretty obvious, he’s unlikely to repeat his 2022 season’s offensive production and might even end up being more of a bottom of the lineup hitter. Of course, defense is everything with him, and so it might not be such a big deal, if he’s not a great hitter to whichever team that signs him.

I see him as the worst of the “big 4” SS’s available so the others will likely get the big deals. That said, he’s still young enough (29 next season), to get a 7 year deal at $20 million + a year. The Atlanta Braves should be in the mix to re-sign him, but bring close to their payroll limits, will likely end up moving on instead. Any big contract will actually have them immediately go into luxury tax territory.

So who will sign Dansby Swanson then? I suspect that San Francisco won’t be content with just one big signing of a hitter, and will sign him as well. They can afford both in fact. The Seattle Mariners are an intriguing pick as well, but I see them more in the market for cheaper and better hitting options instead. A QO won’t affect his value.

6. Carlos Rodón, SP

5 years/$150 million with the Texas Rangers

If there’s one area where the Miami Marlins don’t need help, it’s the rotation. It’s especially good because the starting pitching market features aces with some impressive upside, and just as scary downside. Carlos Rodón is at the top of the list.

Rodón took a while to emerge as an ace, and spent most of his career trying to stay healthy as a #3-#4 starter with the Chicago White Sox He had both shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery, then found himself non-tendered after a 5.74 ERA in 42 1/3 innings during 2019-2020.

Chicago brought him back for 2021 on a 1 year/$3 million contract. Rodón then broke out as an ace. Shoulder fatigue kept him to just 6 starts for the final two months, and he was forced into another 1 year deal for 2022. He took a 2 year/$44 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, but got an opt-out after the first for pitching 110 innings.

Rodón delivered a 5.4 WAR in a career-high 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA/2.24 FIP, and importantly didn’t struggle with his health this time around. Chicago helped San Francisco quite a bit, by stupidly not offering him a QO last off-season. As a result, Carlos now got one from San Francisco and will bring them draft pick compensation.

Carlos Rodón will be 29 years old to start next season, so 5 years seems reasonable for him. He may even get a couple opt-outs again. I expect him to top out at $30 million a year, but it’s always possible that he’ll command more. San Francisco make sense as a destination, but they don’t seem to like long-term contracts for pitchers.

Texas is planning to heavily pursue top of the rotation starting pitchers, so I think that they’ll end up topping the market for Carlos Rodón.

7. Justin Verlander, SP

3 years/$120 million with the Houston Astros

Justin Verlander has been nothing short of amazing in 2022: 5.8 WAR, 18-4 1.75 ERA/2.49 FIP  9.5 K/9 1.5 BB/9. 39 year olds don’t pitch like this, and he’ll actually be 40 years old next season. Is it crazy to expect Verlander to look for a multi-year deal? Why not? He wants to pitch until he’s 45, so cashing in for as many years as possible makes sense. Three seems the most that I could see anyone offering him however.

Are there any red flags with Verlander? As great as he’s been in 2022, one has to wonder if he can really keep pitching at this level the older that he gets. There is simply no real precedent to being this good for so long, and one has to wonder at which point nature will simply take its course. A decline might not seem likely now, but give it a year or two and it could hit him hard.

There is also the fact that only contending teams will be interested in this type of risky contract. Any of the contending teams can reasonably be expected to make a run at him, but I suspect that he’ll choose to stay comfortably in Houston, who I assume will prioritize bringing him back despite his poor performance in the playoffs.

Justin Verlander is going to be one of the most interesting free agents out there and his contract will be one of the more intriguing ones to follow.

8. Jacob deGrom, SP

4 years/$160 million with the New York Mets

Jacob deGrom is going to be one of the most sought after starting pitchers on the free agent market. deGrom is easily in the top five at the position, with only his health being the biggest red flag when it comes to what can be expected from him going forward.

Jacob deGrom’s health will be a major concern as he hasn’t pitched a full season’s workload of innings since 2019. He also missed significant time with injuries over the last few years, including the first half of 2022. I’m sure that deGrom is healthy now, and will likely push that narrative in order to get as many years as possible. Four years seems to be the limit however in my opinion.

deGrom does have some good stats to point interested suitors to however: 3.08 ERA/2.13 FIP in 11 games and 64.1 innings in 2022. He also had a remarkable 14.1 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. He also has a track record of being considered the best starting pitcher in the game. A resume like that is sure to have enough interested teams to push the contract length and value forward.

Jacob deGrom will start next season at 34 years old, but will turn 35 prior to the All-Star break, and will be 39 by the end of his projected contract. That’s definitely going to be a factor in the bidding, but ultimately not enough to keep him cashing in pretty significantly in the end. He has a QO attached, but it don’t affect him.

Who will sign Jacob deGrom? My guess is that he will end up staying with the New York Mets. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where their owner Steve Cohen doesn’t land an ace, and keeping deGrom is likely to be a priority for him. I think that he stays with his current club.

9. Brandon Nimmo, CF

5 years/$100 Million to the Houston Astros

Brandon Nimmo is the top CF on the market. As a result, he’s going to get more interest than he probably should. The fact is that the CF market is so weak that even a just barely passable fielder can get very well paid. Nimmo only had a 0.2 dWAR in 2022.

Overall, Nimmo’s 2022 was very impressive. He finished the season with a 5.1 WAR and a .274/.367/.433 batting line with 16 home runs and 64 RBI in 151 games and 580 AB. Nimmo isn’t much of a power guy, but he gets on base and still does have some pop. Another important aspect is that he hits well enough for contact.

Does Brandon Nimmo have any red flags? Of course he does. He hasn’t been particularly healthy throughout his career, only playing over 100 games in 2018 and 2022, despite debuting well back in 2016. To be fair, he did play 55 games in the shortened 2020 season. All of that considered, his injury history is a clear red flag that light just scare off quite a few teams.

The need for CF help could push teams to bid high for Nimmo and could push the 29 year old (30 next year) into 5 year territory. He can turn make in the ballpark of $20 million a year. It’s an overpay that can actually happen in this terrible market for CF help. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it Evers up being less years and dollars.

Who will sign him? My guess is that the New York Mets will pass even with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets. Houston has vacancies in LF and CF and may choose to land Nimmo to fill one of them. CF is the one glaring need in Houston’s lineup, so they may look at Brandon Nimmo as the solution for it. Nimmo will cost a draft pick due to having a QO attached.

10. Willson Contreras, C

4 years/$80 million with the Minnesota Twins

Willson Contreras is the top catcher available on the free agent market. Contreras is 30 years old and will turn 31 early next season. He batted .243/.349/.466 in 113 games and 416 AB in 2022. He also hit 22 home runs, drove in 55 RBI and produced a 3.9 WAR.

Are there any red flags with Contreras? Yes. His defense hasn’t been the greatest, with him producing 0.5 dWAR this season, 0.7 in 2019 and 0.2 in the shortened 2020 season. It is however important to mention that he had a 1.8 dWAR in 2021. The narrative that he’s a bad defender is clearly not completely accurate. It will however affect him a bit, as well as the qualifying offer that he’s been saddled with.

As the top free agent catcher, there should be a lot of teams in the mix for him. That said, too many seem to fall out of contention for him when it’s time to pick the likeliest destination. The New York Mets have the need and money, but a top prospect blocks the way; the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays already have catchers. The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels probably won’t spend and the Houston Astros will likely prioritize defense.

The Minnesota Twins have both money and need and I suspect that they may actually win the bidding for him. It doesn’t seem smart to pick them fo win the bidding on anyone at first glance, but I really do feel that they can pull this off sue to lower demand everywhere else.

What do you think? Do you agree with my picks? Do you think that these players will sign somewhere else? Do you think that the contracts will be different? Part two is coming up and will cover the remaining top 10 free agents.