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Top 20 free agents & where they’ll sign part 1

By Neil Raymond

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 31: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees runs off the field against the Kansas City Royals during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium on July 31, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 31: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees runs off the field against the Kansas City Royals during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium on July 31, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images) /
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5. Dansby Swanson, SS

Dansby Swanson
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – OCTOBER 12: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves throws to first base against the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning in game two of the National League Division Series at Truist Park on October 12, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

7 years/$154 million with the San Francisco Giants

Dansby Swanson is the final of the “big 4” shortstops and the “cheapest” among them as well. Swanson is coming off a 5.7 WAR .277/.329/.447 season in which he hit 25 home runs and drove in 96 RBI in 162 games and 640 AB.

Swanson’s 2022 output is a bit questionable, considering his career .255/.321/.417 batting line and a .348 BABIP, while having a .313 career BABIP. Swanson isn’t that good of a hitter, but defensively he’s a stud. He had a 2.0 dWAR and won a NL Gold Glove at SS in 2022.

The red flags with Dansby Swanson are pretty obvious, he’s unlikely to repeat his 2022 season’s offensive production and might even end up being more of a bottom of the lineup hitter. Of course, defense is everything with him, and so it might not be such a big deal, if he’s not a great hitter to whichever team that signs him.

I see him as the worst of the “big 4” SS’s available so the others will likely get the big deals. That said, he’s still young enough (29 next season), to get a 7 year deal at $20 million + a year. The Atlanta Braves should be in the mix to re-sign him, but bring close to their payroll limits, will likely end up moving on instead. Any big contract will actually have them immediately go into luxury tax territory.

So who will sign Dansby Swanson then? I suspect that San Francisco won’t be content with just one big signing of a hitter, and will sign him as well. They can afford both in fact. The Seattle Mariners are an intriguing pick as well, but I see them more in the market for cheaper and better hitting options instead. A QO won’t affect his value.

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