Top 20 free agents & where they’ll sign part 2

The Miami Marlins need to spend more money in free agency, and there’s definitely a road to the playoffs in 2023. We will probably do more in trades than in free agency, but it’s still intriguing to see who will sign where. Let’s take a look at the top 20 free agents and where they will probably sign, as well as for how much. This is part 2 with part 1 found here. Let’s begin….

11. Josh Bell, 1B

4 Years/$64 Million with the Houston Astros

Josh Bell is one of the top first basemen available on the free agent market. In 2022, Bell played for both the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres. It was a tale of two very different seasons. He batted .301/.384/.493 with Washington in 103 games and 375 AB, with 14 home runs and 57 RBI. After the trade to San Diego however, he batted .192/.316/.271 with 3 home runs and 14 RBI in 53 games and 177 AB. Bell’s full season total was .266/.362/.422 in 156 games and 552 AB, with 17 HR and 71 RBI. He was worth 3.0 WAR.

This type of inconsistency is not uncommon for Josh Bell. For example, he batted .261/.357/.411 in 2018 for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and then .277/.367/.569 for them the following year. Bell batted .226/.305/.364 in 2020 (again for Pittsburgh), but then .261/.347/.476 for Washington.

Bell is a career .262/.351/.459 hitter who as you can see has a reputation as being streaky. I suspect that the streamlines will scare quite a few teams off. Bell has a case for 4 years, and a $16 million annual value makes sense as well. The lack of a qualifying offer helps his case even further. Houston needs a first baseman and they can afford his price tag.

12. José Abreu, 1B

2 Years/$34 Million with the Miami Marlins

José Abreu had the highest WAR of any first baseman on the market at 4.2. He batted .304/.378/.446 with 15 HR and 75 RBI in 157 games and 601 AB. Abreu has been remarkably consistent and avoided serious injuries throughout his career. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, the lowest game total in his career has been 128 in 2018. His second lowest was 145 in 2017. He played at least 152 games in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022.

Are there any red flags with him? He is 35 years old now and will play all of next season at 36. His power also went down quite a bit in 2022, going down from 30 home runs in 2021 to just 15 in 2022. Interestingly, his EV actually improved from 92.0 to 92.2 making that drop pretty bizarre. Still, his age will almost certainly scare quite a few teams off.

A positive about José Abreu is that he won’t have a qualifying offer attached to him, after having it already during his last trip through free agency. Based on his age, I think that he will be limited to 2 years and $16-17 million per year.

Who will pursue him? The Miami Marlins immediately stick out to me, considering he’s from Cuba and might welcome playing in Little Havana. We also need a first baseman, a clubhouse leader and a middle of the order bat. José Abreu checks all of those boxes. The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins are options too, but Abreu might prefer the warmer Miami weather and Cleveland might not want to give out an expensive contract (by their standards).

13. Chris Bassitt, SP

3 Years/$60 Million with the New York Mets

Chris Bassitt might not jump off the page, but he had a 15-9 W-L record and a 3.42 ERA/3.66 FIP in 30 games and 181.2 innings for the New York Mets in 2022. He also had 8.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Bassitt was worth 3.2 WAR. He also has a solid career 3.45 ERA/3.81 FIP in 136 games and 737.1 innings.

What are his red flags? Well, he’s already 33 years old and has quite an injury history. In his 8 year Major League career, he only topped 100 innings three times (144.0 in 2019, 157.1 in 2021 and 181.2 in 2022). That’d definitely going to worry a lot of suitors when it comes to giving him a large contract.

Chris Bassitt was actually even better in 2021. He went 12-4 with a 3.15 ERA/3.34 FIP in 27 games and 157.1 innings. He also had 9.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 and was worth 4.0 WAR. That was an actual ace performance and even earned him a 10’th place finish in AL Cy Young voting. If we go a year earlier, he had a 5-2 record and a 2.29 ERA/3.59 FIP in the shortened 2020 season. It’s clear that he’s a potential top of the rotation starter for now at least.

Who will sign Chris Bassitt? I expect there to be a strong market for him, as he probably won’t top 3 years at $20 million a year. The New York Mets will have a couple of holes in the rotation to fill, so I expect them to go hard at bringing him back. The Texas Rangers could be strong contenders as well, as should the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants. The fourth year could in fact be the hold-up.

14. Andrew Benintendi, LF

4 Years/$54 Million with the Texas Rangers

Andrew Benintendi broke out in his second season with the Boston Red Sox, when he batted .271/.352/.424 with 20 HR and 90 RBI in 151 games and 573 AB. He was worth 2.8 WAR. He was just as good in 2018, batting .290/.366/.465 with 16 HR and 87 RBI in 148 games and 579 AB. Good for 4.8 WAR.

Things went south for Benintendi after that…. He batted .266/.343/.431 in 2019 and then an even worse .103/.314/.128 in 2020, his final season in Boston. Benintendi moved on to the Kansas City Royals, with whom he hit .276/.324/.442 in 2021 and .320/.397/.398 in 2022, prior to getting traded to the New York Yankees mid-season. With the Bronx Bombers, he hit a disappointing .254/.331/.404 and ended the season on the IL.

Andrew Benintendi batted a prerty solid .304/.373/.399 for both Kansas City and New York in 126 games and 461 AB. He was worth 3.2 WAR. He did however only have 5 home runs and 51 RBI, which is likely to limit his years and dollars. I still see quite a few teams being interested in signing him for his contact hitting ability. I think that 4 years/$13 million a year is a pretty reasonable expectation for his next contract.

The New York Yankees will likely let him walk, but the Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers all fit as teams in need of LF help. Ultimately, since I expect The Fish to improve this area over trade, he will probably end up signing with Texas, who can use his contact ability at the top of their batting order.

16. Taijuan Walker, SP

4 Years/$52 Million with the Baltimore Orioles

Taijuan Walker was drafted #43 overall in 2010 and was a highly regarded prospect, but his  career was seriously affected by injury. Taijuan missed significant time due to both Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery. Taijuan Walker made 6 phenomenal starts with the Toronto Blue Jays, producing a 1.37 ERA/4.14 FIP. Walker‘s 2.70 ERA/4.56 FIP in 53.1 innings between Toronto and the New York Mets, earned him a 2 year deal with the latter, which also included a player option for 2023, which he now declined.

Taijuan Walker has been the New York Mets’ most durable SP from 2021-2022 with a 3.98 ERA in 316 innings. He isn’t really an ace, but he’s solid enough (159.0 innings in 2021 and 157.1 in 2022), where he can be relied upon to provide solid production. In 2022, he went 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA/3.65 FIP along with 7.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

Walker isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but has good enough stuff to be a solid #3 starting pitcher. He should still get a good deal. My prediction is that at 30 years old, a 4 year deal isn’t unrealistic for him. $13 million a year is also a pretty reasonable price as well. The only question is how high the demand for him is going to be. I expect it to be pretty high to be honest.

I could see multiple teams being in the mix for him, so it’s a guessing game as to where he will actually end up. The New York Mets could very well re-sign him, but they can’t realistically keep all of their free agents. I suspect that the Baltimore Orioles will solidify their rotation by bringing him in. It’s also possible that the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies or Texas Rangers pick him up instead. It’s going to be a busy off-season for Taijuan Walker.

17. Mitch Haniger, RF

1 Year/$16 Million with the New York Yankees

Mitch Haniger is typically good when healthy, but staying on the field is an issue. Whether it’s a ruptured testicle or another freak injury, there’s always something keeping the poor guy off the field. Haniger broke out in 2018 with the Seattle Mariners, batting .285/.366/.493 in 157 games and 596 AB, adding 26 home runs and 93 RBI, producing a spectacular 6.5 WAR.

He followed that up with a .220/.314/.463 batting line in 2019, with 15 home runs and 32 RBI. Haniger missed the entire 2020 season, but came back in 2021 to bat .253/.318/.485 in 157 games and 620 AB, producing 39 HR, 100 RBI and a 3.1 WAR. 2022 was a disappointment of a contract year for Haniger, as he batted .247/.308/.429 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI in 57 games and 224 AB.

I strongly suspect that the 31 year old will have to take a 1 year deal to prove that he’s healthy and productive. This would be a better deal for him then say a multi-yeardeal with a low average annual value. What teams could be in the mix for him? I could see Seattle wanting him back, I can also see the Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers in the mix. The Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox could have interest as well. I do think that the New York Yankees will end up winning the bidding.

Before you say that this he isn’t a good replacement for you know who, I do expect the Bronx Bombers swinging a couple of trades or just a trade along the way.

18. Anthony Rizzo, 1B

3 Years/$56 Million with the New York Yankees

Anthony Rizzo used to be a model of consistency for the Chicago Cubs between 2014 and 2019. just look at these numbers:

2014: 286/.386/.527 with 32 home runs and 78 RBI in 140 games and 524 AB.

2015: .278/.387/.512 with 31 home runs and 101 RBI in 160 games and 586 AB.

2016: .292/.385/.544 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI in 155 games and 583 AB.

2017: .273/.392/.507 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI in 157 games and 572 AB.

2018: .283/.376/.470 with 25 home runs and 101 RBI in 153 games and 566 AB.

2019: .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs and 94 RBI in 146 games and 512 AB.

Things weren’t as good for Rizzo in 2020, when he batted .222/.342/.414 in the shortened season. In 2021, he hit .248/.344/.440 with 22 home runs and 61 RBI in 141 games and 496 AB. He did it with both Chicago and the New York Yankees, who he was traded to mid-season.

In 2022, Anthony Rizzo batted .224/.338/.480 with 32 home runs and 75 RBI in 130 games and 465 AB with New York. A qualifying offer recipient, it’s unlikely that he has a big market due to that and the fact that he’s a 33 year old first baseman. It’s nice to imagine him playing for the Miami Marlins, but I don’t really see that happening. Not because we can’t afford him, but because we won’t give up a draft pick to sign him.

So where will he end up? I expect him to re-sign with the New York Yankees. He’s needed there and he wouldn’t cost too much. A 3 year deal at $18 million a year seems pretty reasonable to me. The Bronx Bombers also don’t have to worry about giving up a draft pick for an extra advantage.

19. Noah Syndergaard, SP

3 Years/$45 Million with the Texas Rangers

Is it time for “Thor” to come home to Texas? I certainly think so, but it’s a shame that he’s been pitching more like a mere mortal than a God. Noah Syndergaard broke out in 2015 with the New York Mets, going 9-7 with a 3.24 ERA/3.25 FIP in 24 games and 150.0 innings. He also had 10.0 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9.

He followed that up with a Cy Young award vote-getting performance in 2016. That year he went 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA/2.29 FIP in 31 games and 183.2 innings. He also had 10.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. 2017 was the beginning of his injury problems, as he went 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA/1.31 FIP in 7 games and 30.1 innings. He also had 10.1 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9.

Noah Syndergaard’s final good season came in 2018, when he went 13-4 with a 3.03 ERA/2.80 FIP in 25 games and 154.1 innings. He did however decline to 9.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. In 2019, the drop-off began…he went 10-8 with a 4.28 ERA/3.60 FIP in 32 games and 197.2 innings. He had 9.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. He missed the 2020 season, and returned in 2021 for 2 games and 2.0 innings. He went 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA/7.67 FIP. He also had  9.0 K/9 and 0.0 BB/9.

2022 saw Syndergaard split time between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He went 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA/3.83 FIP in 25 games and 134.2 innings. He had 6.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Will this make Syndergaard settle for a 1 year deal again? Will he take a multi-year pact? Are his days as an ace done for good? Or will “Thor” find his “hammer” and dominate again? I think that the 29 year old ends up with the Texas Rangers next season.

20. Nathan Eovaldi, SP

1 Year/$19.5 Million

This may be cheating, but I think that Nathan Eobaldi accepts the qualifying offer that he received from his current team: the Boston Red Sox. The qualifying offer is worth $19.5 million, which is what I see his contract Olga’s basically bring. There’s just so much uncertainty with him, that I can’t see any team giving up a draft pick to sign him.

The 33 year old next season is a former Miami Marlin, who never really worked out with us. In his best season with us in 2013, he went 4-6 with a 3.39 ERA/3.59 FIP in 18 games and 106.1 innings. As you can see he just couldn’t stay healthy. In 2014, he went 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA in 33 games and 199.2 innings.

Eovaldi had a pair of 4.00+ ERA seasons with the New York Yankees in 2015 and 2016, but again only managed 154.1 and 124.2 innings in each of those seasons. He then missed the 2017 season entirely, before resurfacing with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018. He went 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA/4.28 FIP in 10 games and 57 innings, but turned on another level upon a trade to Boston mid-season. He then went 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA/2.88 FIP in 12 games and 54.0 innings. He played a big part in their World  Series win that season as well.

In 2019, he disappointed with a 5.99 ERA/5.90 FIP in 23 games and 67.2 innings. He then bounced back somewhat with a 3.72 ERA/3.87 FIP in the shortened 2020 season. He then had a 3.75 ERA/2.79 FIP in a surprisingly healthy 2021 season. He pitched in 32 games she 182.1 innings that season. In 2022, the injury bug bit him again, as he went 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA/4.30 FIP in 20 games and 109.1 innings.

So what do you think? Do you agree with these moves or do you disagree?