Call it a coin toss how much Phillies will care about beating Miami Marlins this week

No debate about it- Tuesday night brings the most important game of the Miami Marlins season.

Until Wednesday, that is. Which will be true until Thursday. Only to be surpassed by...well you get the pattern. It's playoff baseball the rest of the way for the Marlins, assuming of course that they keep winning and the Mets keep imploding. Every series, every game matters. Just as it does for Miami's final opponent of the season, the previously mentioned and perpetually cursed New York Mets. Even if everything went right for Miami and wrong for New York the next four days, the Mets would still have the same shot at being either a playoff team or a spoiler this weekend in Miami as the home team would.

But how true is that for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Marlins first opponent this week?

That's a bit of a complicated question. After all, the Phillies have already clinched a spot in the postseason. What's more, they are very close to being locked into the No. 2 seed. Four games in front of the Dodgers and three games behind the Brewers, it would take a pretty massive collapse to cost them that coveted bye week. Almost as bad as the collapse the Brewers would have to endure to relinquish their hold on the top spot. While the final wild card might best be described as a random number generator at this point, the other five spots are starting to feel pretty chalky.

Then again, there's a reason they play the games.

For proof of that concept, see the fact that the Marlins still even have a chance to make the playoffs to begin with. Collapses can happen, and with six games left on the schedule for everyone, all manner of standings jockeying is still technically, mathematically possible. And as the wise man once said, that is the best kind of possible.

The simplest answer, and this isn't really that simple at all, is that the Phillies will probably care an awful lot about winning on Tuesday...and then it depends.

For while the Marlins have their hands full just making sure they go 5-1 or better against the best of the NL East, the most interesting series with playoff implications will be taking place across the country in San Diego. There the Brewers and Padres will face off. If Milwaukee wins and Philadelphia loses, stretching Milwaukee's lead to four games with five to play, that could be enough to cause Philly to take their foot off the gas a bit right then and there. In fact, the same trick might be achieved with Milwaukee and Philadelphia both winning as well. The Phillies do end their season with a cake match up against the Twins in Philadelphia. That's a soft landing, playing a team even worse than the Marlins squad they have beaten seven out of ten times so far in 2025.

Another matter is how much Philly might even want the No. 1 seed. No one knows the answer to that but the members of the Phillies clubhouse, but it is a question worth throwing out there given some of the surprising upsets the MLB postseason has seen the last few years. If they finish with the No. 2 seed, they would draw either the Dodgers or whoever wins the battle for the sixth spot. The prize for finishing with the top spot looks to be battling either the Cubs or the Padres. That's a deeper pool of talent to have to play against. You could counter with "avoid the Dodgers at all costs", but these aren't the Dodgers of the last couple years either. Plus, the Phillies did go 4-2 against them during the regular season. Pair that confidence with the certain talent gap between them and the six seed, and the incentives to care much who they face could dry up.

Finally, one last wrinkle with the Phillies incentive to beat Miami this week- they just might want to keep the option open of beating them next week instead.

After all, they made fast enough work of them there in the 2023 postseason. More importantly than that though is the fact that the Marlins are the only one of the six teams battling for the final two wild card spots that the Phillies have a winning record against this season. Plus, while the talent gap isn't as extreme as it was in 2023...the gap is still pretty darn massive. That's less true for the other wild card hopeful teams- especially the Mets.

Put another way, the Marlins get their shot to eliminate the Mets this weekend, but the Phillies might see their best chance of doing so happening right now "against" the Marlins. Plus, there's always the argument of not showing some of your top pitchers to an opponent right before you're about to face them again in a potential playoff series. Just one more reason for Philly to pull their punches this week.

Ultimately, it's a division rivalry between professional athletes- all of this is probably a case of extreme overthinking. Yet the fact that overthinking is called for means it isn't all that clear cut either- which is plenty of cause for Marlins fans to celebrate.

Almost as much as the fact that with seven games left in the season, Marlins fans are even in a position to overthink to begin with.