Confidence, rotation spots at stake for Miami Marlins versus St. Louis Cardinals

At first glance, this probably seems like a pretty inconsequential series for the Miami Marlins.

Not a division rival. Not a great team. It's only April. Take your pick- other than the fact that these two clubs are spring training roommates at that shiny new Jupiter facility, there just isn't much to move the needle as the Miami Marlins take on the St. Louis Cardinals this week.

On the other hand, it will be pretty hard not to convince the bulk of the Marlins fanbase that the sky is falling if they do drop this series. Losing at home to a team that was at least projected to be much worse than Miami this season? Being multiple games under .500 heading into a West Coast trip that includes the Dodgers? They haven't won a series that started in April...and we're starting to run out of April.

Once you pile on all of that baggage, and this series suddenly enters must-win territory for the Marlins. To the extent any series in April can be described as such, at any rate. Certainly, it doesn't seem hyperbolic to say the ballclub could really use this one.

However, as confidence boosting as a series win would be, the performances of Miami's starting pitchers in this series are going to have a far bigger impact on how the season shakes out than a few games here or there in the standings.

Why? Because the Marlins have myriad options right on the heels of the back of their starting rotation. Robby Snelling and Thomas White are the organization's Top 2 prospects. Braxton Garrett has more of an established MLB track record than three-fifths of the rotation. All three of them are left-handed, something Miami's rotation presently lacks. Garrett and Snelling have nothing left to learn at AAA, and White is probably the best of the three.

In other words, it's just a matter of time before the Marlins make a move here. Which is a nice way of saying that the pressure is entirely on Janson Junk, Max Meyer, and Chris Paddack to keep their jobs. Snelling just struck out nine his last time out. Garrett flirted with a shutout in his last start, and pitches again tonight. Every time they do something studly like this, it only serves to increase the likelihood that the non-Sandy Alcantara/Eury Perez contingent of the rotation could well be down to their last out.

Max Meyer is looking pretty safe, even if that is probably frustrating for the front office from a roster construction standpoint. Of the three, he's the only one with minor league options remaining, and arguably the one with the most upside as a bullpen arm. Yet he came into this series safe, and on Monday night delivered his best start of the season. The only downside is he once again failed to make it through the sixth inning. If he can't ever go six, that's going to be a continual drag on the bullpen over a long season. It's managable if everyone else is pitching well, and could be very managable if one of these starters just ends up piggy-backing him the rest of the way. If not though, it wouldn't take much for him to very quickly become the most likely to lose his spot. But right now? He's holding serve.

Which brings us to Junk and Paddack.

Paddack is making the most money of the bunch, and indeed more money than anyone on the roster besides Alcantara and Pete Fairbanks. For many Marlins fans, that alone serves to make him safer than a runner trying to steal second on Agustin Ramirez. Then again, it's only $4 million. Last season, the team did eventually risk eating the remainder of Cal Quantril's $3.5 million contract in the interest of getting him off the roster. What's more, that was in a season where Miami was less interested in competing. Things should be different this time around. So the money is an obstacle, but not an insurmountable one. Between Miami's lofiter ambitions and Paddack's slightly higher talent (relative to Quantrill), he's movable if the path to an upgrade is clear. His last start was also his best with the team, but he's one just one bad outing from inviting all kinds of questions about his place on the roster.

Junk is in the interesting spot of being more trusted than Paddack, but also having had the most success as a bullpen member. He can't be optioned, but Miami has seen him contribute as a long-man in a piggy-back capacity as recently as last season. He brings neither Chris Paddack's contract or Max Meyer's pedigree to the table. He's the most easily dismissible in a lot of ways. Yet his stuff has shown real improvement, and he earned a lot of trust from the organization on the strength of last year’s performance. Junk might be without options, but he's under team control until 2031, and isn't even arbitration eligible until 2028. The Marlins have the least invested in him, but a compelling case can be made that he's the easiest to hold on to if he shows he can stick in the rotation.

Ultimately, Paddack would seem to be on the most shaky ground- even if he's good, he's not here next season. His one year deal and Miami's up and coming pitchers preclude that. He can be cut or traded with zero impact on future years.

Of course, for any of these conversations about what could happen if these pitchers struggle to matter...they have to struggle. That hasn't really happened yet, at least not to a degree to really sell losing a role to the clubhouse. Which is why they have so much to play for when the quality of competition drops like it has for this Cardinals seres.

Lose to the Tigers or Yankees in the cold? All well and good- even Sandy struggled. Lose at home to a team you should beat easily though? The Marlins starting pitcher that stumbles could find themselves looking for work.

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