Hard not to root for one last Miami Marlins ride for Luis Arraez

The last time Luis Arraez played for the Miami Marlins, they made the playoffs.

Case closed, right? Make a trade offer as soon as possible.

Obviously, it's not that simple. Particularly since I'm choosing to block out the fact he ever played a game for the 2024 version of the Miami Marlins, preferring to pretend instead that he was packed off to the Padres in the offseason. Including a 62-100 trainwreck of a season does tend to throw off the math!

So let's go with August. The last time Arraez played a game for the Marlins in August, they made the playoffs. Sounds like a perfect trade deadline target to me.

Of course, many of the concerns Peter Bendix and the Marlins had about Arraez still exist. He's still a one-tool player, with the lack of power stinging even more now that he's spending so much time at first base. He's not a great defender. On an annual basis, he's a bit pricey for a team with Miami's payroll constraints.

On the other hand, the circumstances around those issues have changed dramatically. The Arraez money concerns were more about extending him for multiple years- not whatever portion of the $12 million they'd pick up in a midsummer trade. The defensive concerns were always more about what a minus he was at second base, where the organization felt they had multiple better options. Luis Arraez not being able to beat out Xavier Edwards or Otto Lopez tracks. Not beating out Christopher Morel? That remains to be seen.

Most important of all though, the 2026 Marlins want to win. The 2024 club did not, and was looking to rebuild. And just to be clear, none of this meant to suggest the team erred, at least not from a player valuation perspective, in moving Arraez for a package that included Jakob Marsee. Any issues I had with it were always tied to the perception ramifications for the Marlins famously distrustful fanbase. Trading to acquire him presupposes that the club is in position to make another playoff run this summer, and that the Giants very much are not.

On the Giants end, that seems likely. They came into the season projected to win less than 80 games. The Dodgers have been as good as advertised, and San Diego has been better. Plenty of other NL teams look to competitive this season, and with more balanced rosters. When third place in your division looks like the absolute ceiling, it might be your year.

As for the Marlins, alright they also were projected to win less than 80 games. Yet the things that needed to happen for them to beat their projections have been happening so far. The Braves are looking like a juggernaut again, but the rest of the division has been horrendous. The Mets and Phillies have deeper rosters but are somehow making the Marlins look like the more solid organization in comparision. And if the arms stay healthy, they could enter August with one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

Really, there's only one glaring hole on this Marlins team. First base.

It just lines up to make a lot of sense under the right set of fairly plausible circumstances. Plus, it was all at least one baseball writer was able to think about as Arraez laced hit after hit Friday night against his former team. Arraez loved being here. He seemed to leave on good terms. Based on all of that, he seems like the kind of player Bruce Sherman would greenlight "special money" for if the team is in a position to add this summer.

Hopefully, for the Marlins sake, they don't need him. Maybe Christopher Morel can be a real first baseman. Maybe Connor Norby's recent changes at the plate stick and this isn't just a hot streak he's on. Maybe a team with a more prototypical slugging first baseman falls out of it and the Marlins pull off a massive splash.

If not, though? If the Marlins stay alive in this 2026 playoff race with a revolving door at first base, and can get a good price, they could do a lot worse than bringing back a three-time batting champ for a summer rental.

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