If Gary Sheffield is out, Stanton now Miami Marlins last shot at MLB Hall of Fame

Plenty of Miami teams had a great weekend, but not the Miami Marlins.

Inter Miami won their first MLS championship. The Miami Dolphins thoroughly dominated the New York Jets. The Florida Panthers had a big comeback. The Miami Heat? Well, no one else has traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo yet, and most South Florida fans probaly didn't even notice what they did what with all the other storylines going on. Even on the college side, the Miami Hurricanes made the College Football Playoff, finally being done right by the CFP committee.

Unfortunately for the Miami Marlins, it was only one committee that did right by the city this weekend, not two. For on Sunday night, it was announced that not only had the Contemporary Baseball Era committee failed to elect Gary Sheffield to the MLB Hall of Fame, but that he had also received less than five votes. That last detail is the most damning, as recent rule changes now state that failing to get less than five votes two times in a row on a ballot removes you from all future consideration. It also states that you flat out are ineligible on the next Contemporary Era ballot, meaning that the next time Sheffield will even have a chance at getting into the Hall is 2031.

Of course, that rule could change. Doing so would only be as arbitrary as the Hall of Fame's decision to enact this rule in the first place. In a world where Pete Rose was suddenly deemed to be eligible, anything can happen. Still, all we can really react to is the here and now, and the here and now says Gary Sheffield is one vote away from never being enshrined in Cooperstown.

Which is pretty bad news for Miami Marlins fans hoping to see a player repping their team inducted into sport's greatest hall. Earlier this week for Here's The Pitch, I laid out a clear case for why Sheffield in 2026 was Miami's best chance at having a player do so- ever. It built on a lot of themes I made in article going over Miami's five best chances to get a player in shortly after Sheffield fell off the BBWAA ballot back in 2024. Now standing on the other side of the Contemporary committee's vote, I stand by the Sheffield take: Miami's odds are super slim now at getting a Hall of Famer. Without massive changes in team ownership and/or league salary rules, I'd say there's a better chance of Sheffield getting into the Hall in 2031 than there is of almost any other player choosing to wear a Marlins cap on their Hall of Fame plaque.

The best among those distant chances for the Miami Marlins?

That'd be a world in which Giancarlo Stanton returns home for one final year before hanging 'em up.

Crazy? Probably. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Not even close, once you start gaming it out.

For starters, the Miami Marlins will effectively be paying Stanton $10 million a year for the next three seasons. That seemingly sunk cost is an essential part of this narrative. Why not get something out of it? You'd have to imagine the Marlins would love to not feel like that money is being wasted.

What gets Stanton down to Miami though?

Simple- a world in which the Yankees have enough by the end of the 2027 season. At least in terms of WAR, 2025 was Stanton's best season since 2021 by a wide margin. He's a defensive liability for a Yankees team that is becoming both increasingly interested in protecting Aaron Judge and increasingly enamored with playing Ben Rice. Plus, the Yankees are always a safe bet for adding new talent to an already crowded mix in free agency. If Stanton's play dips in 2026, the Yankees could opt to eat the contract. A more likely point for doing this would be after 2027 though, when the Yankees could buy Stanton out for a mere $10 million- Miami's $10 million.

Again, that $30 million number is a big part of this Miami Marlins Hall of Fame scenario, but it is not the most important number.

That honor would go to 500, specifically the quest to join the 500 HR club.

Currently, Stanton is 47 HRs away. In his prime, he was often expected to do that in a single season. Today? Something in the 20 to 30 HR range feels like his ceiling, and that's an outcome that requires some perfect health on his part alongside some dubious health on the part of his teammates. Still, the smart money should probably be on Stanton reaching 500 HRs in pinstripes before the end of 2027.

But what if he doesn't? What if the injuries keep popping up? What if he loses another step, and while still useful, becomes that much more replaceable to the Yankees? What if he's on the outside looking in at 500, and teamless, at the age of 38 two seasons from now? Maybe this happens even if he has cleared 500, and he's just of the opinion he's the next Nelson Cruz or Jim Thome- with enough left in the tank to chase down an even loftier home run club.

A veteran slugger like Stanton would naturally have value to plenty of teams, but none more so than the Marlins in that scenario. Having the most productive offensive player in franchise history return home to chase down a home run milestone? That's a move that would be sure to sell tickets and boost ratings for Miami.

It's also a move that could well secure a Miami Marlins franchise first. If Stanton crossed whatever homer threshold he wanted to clear, while playing in enough Marlins games to keep them ahead of the Yankees for games played on his career resume? If he has still failed to win a championship in New York by the time he came back south?

If that all happened, that way? I think you'd have to pencil Stanton in for a Marlins cap when he entered the Hall of Fame.