Legacy of Yelich deal looms large as Miami Marlins and Kyle Stowers talk extension

The Miami Marlins are looking to make some big investments into the MLB roster, starting with a contract extension for an All-Star outfielder.

That's the rumor here in good old (?) 2025, as The Athletic reported yesterday that the Marlins are looking to make some splashes in free agency and that talks recently stalled between the team and Kyle Stowers.

The Miami Marlins wanting to spend is welcome news for their fans, and we touched on some of the ramifications of that for team building earlier today. In fact, just about every avenue out there for Marlins news did so, further underscoring how thirsty the fanbase is for Miami to start acting like an MLB team. That will undoubtedly continue over the next few weeks heading into the Winter Meetings as those Hot Stove rumors heat up even further.

However, for this piece, let's keep the focus on Kyle Stowers and those flopped talks.

The response to the news of the Marlins and Stowers being an ocean part on money was unsurprisingly swift but refreshingly mixed, if not indeed heavily in favor of the home team for once. FishOnFirst was quick to tell Stowers he was reaching. Admittedly, Joe Frisaro was quick to essentially tell Bruce Sherman he was penny pinching again. Most fans seemed surprised at the ask on Stowers part- $100 million if the report is correct. Miami might well be too low at $50 million, but are likely much closer to the mark than Stowers' camp presently is if those reported figures are correct. As with most things, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

The thing is, the first sentence of this article? About the Marlins looking to level up in spending and lock up an All-Star outfielder long-term?

It could just as easily have been said about the Marlins in 2015.

Yes, Miami has been in almost this exact situation before, with a little known outfielder named Christian Yelich.

In March of 2015, the Marlins signed Yelich to a seven-year, $49,570,000 extension. In other words, roughly in line financially with what they just offered Stowers, though some fast inflation calculator math shows that to be a nearly $14 million improvement on what Yelich received.

Now, that FishonFirst article linked above takes a far more insightful look at the player value of Stowers and Yelich at the time extensions were offered than will be endeavored here, but we'll take a shot at putting the basics out there, starting with the similarities. To date, Kyle Stowers has played in 303 MLB games. Yelich had played in just 206. So Stowers is the more experienced player. The arbitration scenarios are fairly close- Stowers is a year away, whereas Yelich was two. Both were roughly five years from free agency. Both players had just been Gold Glove finalists the year before.

So, on the surface, you can see how the Stowers camp might cry foul. Especially since this deal aged super poorly, super quickly for Yelich. His rapid ascent continued: hitting .300 in 2015, shining for Team USA in the WBC in 2016 before breaking out with a 21 HR campaign for Miami that same year. When he won the NL MVP award for Milwaukee in 2018? He earned only $7 million, and just $9 million nearly winning it again in 2019. There's a reason the Brewers saw fit to give him a nine-year, $215 extension entering 2020. If he had waited just one year longer, the Marlins almost certainly wouldn't have been able to afford him given what we now know, and he would either have earned more in arbitration or been traded to some team that would have paid him more money sooner. There's also the possibility that Stowers is benefiting some much more recent Marlins history advice. Sandy Alcantara pounced on an extension in this neighborhood once himself, and is now regarded as one of the best values in baseball.

Fun for the front office. Not so much for the player.

However, that is where the similarities end. Because make no mistake, as great as 2025 Kyle Stowers was, he has not proven himself to be what 2014 Christian Yelich was viewed as entering those 2015 talks. Those 306 games of his stretch back to 2022, meaning he didn't start proving he could be a star until his fourth stint in the majors. Yelich was basically a star from the jump, equating a 5.4 WAR value from 2013-2014. That's more than double the 2.6 WAR Stowers has produced to date. Yelich wasn't just a finalist for the Gold Glove, but actually won it in 2014. Yelich was first round draft pick, whereas Stowers was a late second round selection. Statheads might be screaming right now, but those things do matter in contract talks.

The biggest difference though, that we can all agree is significant, comes down to age. Stowers is going to be 28 years old come Opening Day. Yelich was 22 when he signed, and didn't turn 23 until midsummer.

Yikes.

All of this boils down to Stowers, much as he did for all of 2025, really swinging for the fences in this case.

For Marlins fans looking to take some comfort in the fact talks stalled, consider an old MLB Trade Rumors report from nearly eleven years ago to the day. It shares the news that the Marlins made an initial offer to Yelich of roughly 6-years, $31 million, that fell on death ears. Fast forward to spring training, and that was when the news broke about that 7-year, $49 million deal. Obviously, that was a different front office. Yet it is proof that talks can resume- it happens all the time in sports.

One more round of rough inflation calculator math has that old Yelich deal worth around $66 million in today's money.

If the Marlins slide that offer across the table to Stowers, perhaps rounded up to an even $70 million?In my humble opinion, he probably takes it.

Especially since his agent would know, deep down, that Miami was heavily overpaying on what they've seen to date.