1 Starter the Marlins should consider to fill in for Sandy and 2 to avoid

Consider - Michael Wacha 

The Miami Marlins will need to compete for a starting pitcher in a pretty tough market this go around. Starters who are adjusted to the new speed of play and have a solid ERA are fewer than normal. There have also been a bevy of injuries, like the Sandy Alcantara injury that some account to the rapid pace of play. As such one quality starter out there is the former San Diego Padres starter Michael Wacha. 

Wacha declined his one year $6.5 million option after the Padres failed to pickup the team option of 2 years and $32 million. Does Wacha deserve $16 million a year, probably not, but I think a happy medium of $10 million might do the trick and bring him to Miami, especially with the lower tax rate. 

Wacha would be a solid Sandy replacement as he put together a very good 2023 season. Wacha went 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA last year and a 1.161 WHIP. He has bounced around between teams so I could easily see him signing a 2 year deal. He has had 2 straight seasons with a low 3 ERA, having a mere 2 walks per nine innings average and giving up only 1 home run per nine innings. The one time All-Star will have some familiarity with Peter Bendix as well since he played for the Rays for a season in 2021. Sign him up. 

Two to avoid - James Paxton 

The former Red Sox starter James Paxton is a free agent but will not be a good choice for the Marlins and there are several reasons why. Paxton is a lefty first and foremost and the Marlins have a good amount of solid southpaws so they have no real need for a lefty like some other teams. Sandy is a righty so that would be the ideal replacement in that regards. 

Paxton ended the year on the IL with knee issues. The 35 year old pitcher is not a spring chicken, and although the Marlins could use the wisdom the injury bug is a concern. He will be cheap so that might be a plus but he could be another player who signs and plays less than 25% of the season due to injury. 

Finally, his stats aren’t there with regard to his value. He went 7-5 over 96 innings with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP. He gives up an average of 3 walks, 1.7 home runs, and 8.7 hits per nine which again doesn’t help the Marlins upper half of the rotation. I just don’t see the value here and there are other solid pitchers that will cost only a little more with little injury concern. 

Avoid - Luis Severino

The former New York Yankees starter could be a hot commodity this offseason and the Marlins don’t need to be anywhere near the bidding war. He is not what the Marlins need and will cost them big time if they were to acquire him. Starting pitchers are certainly valuable but the Marlins don’t need the best starter out there they need a serviceable upper half starter.  

Severino is a former All-Star but is coming off an injury season which is again not what the Marlins want at this time. He could possibly return to the Yankees or be bid up by other high dollar clubs. He has a lifetime 3.79 ERA and a 59% winning record. Those are very good but last season was a different story. He struggled with a 6.65 ERA over 89 innings with a 1.646 WHIP. 

Are those numbers certain to repeat themselves or are they a one off injury season stat line? We don’t know the answer to that question and for that reason let’s not go down that same path as we have with Avisail Garcia or Johnny Cueto. The Marlins need a consistent arm that will eat innings and give them a chance. It’s not him. Will they make a misstep again under new leadership or will they hit the nail on the head with their free agent signings? My bet is they will sign well and get a good starter for value.

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