The Miami Marlins erased a massive deficit on Sunday against the New York Yankees to pick up a walk-off win, and now they’re at home on Monday against the Houston Astros.
Houston is 2.5 games out of first place in the American League West, and they’ll have their ace on the mound in this matchup.
Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA) gets the ball for Houston against another lefty, Miami’s Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08 ERA).
Garrett has been solid for Miami this season, and the team is actually 17-6 in the games that he’s pitched in. Valdez, on the other hand, gave up six runs in his first start since throwing a no-hitter.
Which pitcher has the edge on Monday night?
Here’s a look at the latest odds:
Astros vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Astros vs. Marlins prediction and pick
The Marlins come into this game as underdogs at home, but I think they’re a sneaky pick to upset the Astros.
Even though Valdez threw a no-hitter earlier this month, his other five starts since July 5 have been ugly. In July (four starts), he posted a 7.29 ERA, allowing at least four runs in three of those outings.
Then, he was rocked in his last start against the Baltimore Orioles, giving up six runs on eight hits across seven innings of work.
Usually, I’d rely on a proven starter like Valdez to bounce back, but he’s facing a Miami team that crushes lefties, ranking No. 4 in MLB in OPS against them.
Plus, Garrett has pitched better than his 4.08 ERA suggests, posting a 3.49 Fielding Independent Pitching this season.
I’ll take Miami in this game given the team’s strong record when Garrett is on the mound.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.