Calculating the Miami Marlins win total for the year, can they make the playoffs?

The Miami Marlins don’t have the easiest schedule left but they have a lot of opportunity to win a good amount of games.  Is there a chance they make the playoffs?  Anything can happen and it’s possible, but they seriously need to break out of their current funk and go on a hot streak.  Sputtering away the final month of the season is not the way to the playoffs and if the Marlins keep up their current ways they won’t get anywhere close to the postseason.  

The Marlins have the following games left on their schedule: 

1 versus Tampa Bay
4 versus Washington
3 versus the Dodgers
3 versus the Phillies
7 versus the Brewers
3 versus the Braves
6 versus the Mets
3 versus the Pirates

That’s 30 games total and if the .500 Marlins at 66-66 win half the rest of the games that will put their total at 81 games.  That is probably a good guess as to where they will land with the mix of tough teams and bottom dwellers left on the schedule.  The Marlins chance at making the playoffs keeps shrinking on Famgraphs but anything could happen.  

I have the Marlins winning 14 to finish out the season leaving them at 80 wins.  I think the realistic ceiling is 85 wins but that would take a handful of good series.  Not impossible but they could have won more games easily if they didn’t flop this past weekend against the Nationals. Will an 85 win record get them into October, lets take a look at the competition.

The Diamondbacks are the last team in the playoffs if the season ended today and they are sitting at 69 and 63 which puts the Marlins 3 games back. The Cubs are around the same record and the Giants and Reds have 68 wins each. It is still in the realm of possibilities for the Marlins to make it but they need to be more than a .500 team to make it in. Best case scenario the wild card teams end up at .500 which means the Marlins would still need to be multiple games over .500 to get in. It's possible but it won't be easy.