Fangraphs got it wrong about the Miami Marlins

Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez / Michael Reaves/GettyImages

The recent blockbuster trade between the Miami Marlins and the Minnesota Twins keeps getting attention. Unfortunately some of the takes about it are just plain wrong. Maybe the writers wanted a different trade to be made. Fangraphs published an article that criticized the trade with strange arguments that center on how The Fish apparently "lost the trade". It was a surprisingly poor quality article that missed the entire point of the trade from the Miami Marlins perspective. The trade was good for The Fish.

Fangraphs didn't seem to understand the trade between the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins.

The writer starts off with a bizarre comment:

"in my opinion: Trevor Rogers can slide up to fifth starter now, and he was overqualified as a depth piece."

Trevor Rogers was never going to be out of the rotation unless he was traded himself. He was a legit ace in 2021 and pitched that way once again after recovering from his back problems in 2022. The idea that he was a "depth piece" before the Luis Arraez/Pablo Lopez trade took place is false.

Another bizarre take came next:

"I’m bought in on what the projection systems think: he’s squarely above average and a borderline All-Star if he throws a full season."

This take was said about Pablo. Which projection system was the writer talking about? On the writer's own website there are four ERA projections for a full season from Pablo Lopez. The HIGHEST projected ERA for Pablo in 2023 is 3.73. A 3.73 ERA with a 10-10 W-L record isn't an All-Star. It's a #3 mid-rotation starter. I suppose he could have a great first half, make the All-Star team and then be significantly worse in the second half to get that projection. Still, the writer is talking about "above average" projections and that's not shown on their own website. We can argue semantics and say that his projected ERA is slightly higher than the league average or something like that, but the writer is talking about a top of the rotation pitcher here and that's not Pablo.

He then spends the rest of the article saying that because the Miami Marlins traded unproven prospects (not even on any top 100 list) it's now a win for Minnesota. Keep in mind that Luis Arraez was significantly more valuable than Pablo Lopez in 2023 (4.4 WAR to 3.0 WAR) and I fail to see his point. He criticizes The Fish for making an obvious pitching for hitting trade and claims that he would've done things "differently". What is the writer's suggestion? He wants Kim Ng to do this:

"I think it makes sense to be trying to accumulate good players however you can, even if it means creating positional logjams or acquiring prospects that don’t fit your optimal contention timeline."

In other words, "don't try to win in 2023, stockpile prospects instead". This is such an incredibly ignorant take that it makes me nothing but frustrated. We Miami Marlins fans are tired of rebuilds, we need to win. We have good starting pitching and we can't let it go to waste by doing yet another long rebuild.

He then finally says something right:

I’m not a major league GM; I’ve never worked for a major league team. I haven’t even talked to any team sources about this deal.

Maybe if he had, he would've understood that Miami Marlins fans won't tolerate another rebuild. The Miami Marlins didn't lose this trade, at least not on paper until games are actually played

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