Over the weekend, the Miami Marlins took two of three from the Arizona Diamondbacks, but couldn’t pull off the sweep Sunday and lost 5-0. The Marlins are 8-8 on the year and now, and start a three-game series with the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants is off to a 5-9 start and are fourth in the NL West. They were off Sunday because their series finale with Detroit was postponed. It's not looking great for San Francisco this season, the team has lost three straight. Today, they will hand the ball to Logan Webb who is 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA. He will be opposed by Jesus Luzardo who is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA.
The Giants are in Miami and they’re road underdogs in this game. Here are the odds for the Giants and Marlins.
Giants vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Giants vs. Marlins prediction and pick
Webb struggled in his first two outings of the season, allowing four earned runs in each of them, but last start he went six and only gave up one earned run with six strikeouts and one walk.
He is 85th percentile in strikeout rate with an above average chase and whiff rate, but when he gets, he gets hit pretty hard. Webb is in the 15th percentile in hard hit rate and 41st percentile in average exit velocity. He’s given up four home runs. Two of those actually came in his last start, but three of the runs in that game were unearned.
Whether they’re earned or unearned, if the Giants give up four runs in this one, that could be three too many. The Giants are facing Jesus Luzardo, who looks like an elite starting pitcher right now. He’s given up four runs in 18.2 innings this season with 20 strikeouts and six walks. He has a 93rd percentile whiff rate with his slider and changeup both having near 50% whiff rates.
San Francisco will have almost no chance to touch Luzardo because they are dead last in baseball in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, .541. They have the fourth most strikeouts against lefties while having the 12th most at-bats. The Marlins should cruise behind Luzardo in this one.
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