Marlins vs. Nationals prediction and odds for Sunday, Sept. 3 (Miami Dominates)

The Marlins are only one game back of the final Wild Card spot, but they have three teams to jump.

Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez (3)
Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez (3) / Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

If you want to be a playoff team in the MLB, you need to take care of business against the worst teams in your division. The 69-67 Miami Marlins are still a game back of the final Wild Card spot, but they’re definitely taking care of their business against the 62-75 Washington Nationals. Miami leads this series 3-0 as they go for a sweep, but more impressively they lead the season series 10-2.

For the finale of the season series Miami will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound against Josiah Gray. Alcantara is 6-12 on the year with  a 4.23 ERA in 27 starts while Gray is 7-11 with a 4.05 ERA in 26 starts. 

We’ll get into the odds and my pick for this one, but first if you are betting this game, bet it with this DraftKings Sportsbook promo. Just click the link below, sign up, deposit $5, bet on this NL East matchup, and then collect $200 in bonus bets win or lose. 

Now, let’s take a look at the odds as the Marlins are a road favorite today. 

Marlins vs. Nationals odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Nationals prediction and pick

Last year, Alcantara was the Cy Young Award winner and this season he hasn’t pitched like it. He was much better in the start of August, but he allowed four runs in each of his last two starts to get his ERA back to well over four while his FIP is 4.00. For most of the season his FIP has been lower, but he hasn’t had success because his changeup has been so awful.

A year ago, Alcantara’s changeup was one of the best pitches in baseball with a 24 run value and this season it is at -5. I still believe in Alcantara more than Gray in this matchup though because Gray also allowed four runs last time out, but that came over just two innings. 

Gray has a 4.94 FIP and a 5.03 xERA, so I don’t believe his 4.05 ERA for one second. For most of the season it has been below four and that just isn’t indicative of the type of pitcher Gray is. The Miami offense has gotten hot in this series, so I’m going to fade Gray. 

Yesterday, Luis Arraez had four hits and two RBI to lead the fish to an 11-5 win. The Marlins have beaten the Nats 10 times already this year, so I have to back them in their final matchup of the season. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change