Marlins vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Wednesday, April 12

Apr 11, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr (2) reacts
Apr 11, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr (2) reacts / Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies traded wins in the first two of three in Philadelphia this week, but who will win the rubber match.

Miami will hope promising prospect Edward Cabrera can get on track against a struggling Phillies lineup while the Phils are still looking to find its National League Champion level, still below .500 on the year, as the team sends out Zack Wheeler.

Wheeler pitched below a 3.00 ERA in each of his first three seasons with Philadelphia, but has been well off that pace so far in 2023, posting a 5.59 ERA in two starts.

What's going to give on Wednesday afternoon? Here are the odds and our best bet:

Marlins vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Phillies prediction and pick

I simply can't justify Philly being this big of a favorite. While it's been a small sample size, Wheeler looks to be feeling the effects of the club's postseason run, allowing six runs in 9 1/3 innings with diminishing strikeout metrics (only 12 through two starts).

Miami doesn't have the high powered bats like the Phillies, but the team is out of the basement at the plate this season in terms of advanced metrics.

Yes, the Phillies are third in slugging percentage, but the Marlins check in 21st while hitting .245 as a team. If Wheeler's punch outpitch continues to evade him, the Fish are going to put the ball in play and put pressure on the team's bullpen that is last in the big leagues in ERA as a unit so far this season.

Cabrera has to find his control, he is tied for the big league high with 13 walks so far this season, but the Phillies walk at a bottom five rate on the year so that may not be a concern.

These two teams are closer than this price indicates, so I'll take a shot on the live underdog.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.