The Miami Marlins are 1.5 games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the final wild card spot in the National League, making this week’s series a huge one for both sides.
The Marlins come into Tuesday’s game on a five-game skid, and they’re in danger of falling out of the playoff picture with the Chicago Cubs leapfrogging them in the wild card standings.
Lefty Braxton Garrett (5-3, 4.14 ERA) will be tasked with the job of slowing down the Reds tonight, and Miami has thrived in his outings, going 16-6 this season.
He takes on Reds veteran righty Luke Weaver (2-4, 6.98 ERA) who has simply been one of the worst starters in Major League Baseball in 2023.
Here’s why the Marlins are a terrific bet on the road on Tuesday night:
Marlins vs. Reds odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Reds prediction and pick
I’m going with a full fade of the Reds in this game, especially since the team is cooling off on offense, ranking 17th in OPS over the last 15 days.
Miami has won nine of Garrett’s 11 starts since the beginning of June, but that’s not the only reason why I’d bet on the Marlins tonight.
Cincy’s pitching is a much, much bigger issue.
Reasons to fade Luke Weaver
Weaver has been brutal this season, posting a Fielding Independent Pitching of 6.05, yet somehow the Reds are 11-8 in the games he’s pitched in.
That record is going to come crashing down at some point, especially based on Weaver’s advanced numbers:
- Sixth percentile in expected ERA
- Sixth percentile in expected batting average against
- Fourth percentile in expected slugging percentage
- 13th percentile in whiff percentage
- 14th percentile in barrel percentage
Meanwhile, Garrett has a FIP that is lower than his ERA this season and has done a great job of limiting baserunners, ranking in the 96th percentile in walk percentage.
Miami is worth a bet as a road favorite on Tuesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.