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Miami Marlins news: 2023 MLB season predictions
It's that time of year again... Spring Training is over and so are its meaningless team standings. They never correlate to actual season standings so it's a fresh new start for the Miami Marlins. It's also a fresh start for farm season rankings, as they will change as the season goes on. Enough previewing however, let's get this going! Every season there are surprisingly good teams, surprising disappointments and unpredictability. Remember that as we begin with the AL East. I list teams in order of their projected finish.
Will the Miami Marlins do better than last season?
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
The Bronx Bombers look absolutely loaded. A healthy rotation fronted by Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino is easily the best in the division with tremendous upside. RF Aaron Judge should take a step back, but only because his numbers in 2022 were so historic.1B Anthony Rizzo will benefit from the new shift rules and likely have a strong year himself. Of course Rodon, Cortes and Severino are starting the season injured, but neither seems to be seriously hurt so as long as the team isn't terrible out of the gate, they should be able to hold on until theu're back.
CP Clay Holmes and 2B Gleyber Torres are players to watch as either struggling will cause the team some significant issues, especially if DH Giancarlo Stanton is injured as usual. All of that said this is a division winning team when healthy.
Toronto is New York's biggest competition for the division and if they end up being affected by injuries, Toronto will likely be the ones to win it. Toronto's ace Alek Manoah overachieved quite a bit last season with a 2.24 ERA but a 3.97 xFIP and 3.35 FIP. Fangraphs projects him for a 4.06 ERA in 2023, which along with a questionable defense and injury-prone players such as CF Kevin Kiermaier, RF George Springer and DH Brandon Belt, makes me lean towards New York.
The Tampa Bay Rays can compete with the above two in pitching, but you just can't get past the weak lineup. If SS Wander Franco doesn't bounce back along with 2B Brandon Lowe, this is going to be a very low scoring unit. Even with them doing good, it's just a weak lineup and there's no going around that. I wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to win the division, as they always seem to find a way to do better than expected, but it's just hard to see with that lineup.
I debated between them and the Baltimore Orioles, but I feel that it's ultimately a coin toss. I like Boston's rotation a bit more than Baltimore's and their bullpen looks better too. The lineup depends heavily on LF Masataka Yoshida delivering and the likes of 1B Triston Casas breaking out. So much has to go right for this team, that it would have to be a miracle for them to have any chance at the playoffs with this mess of a team.
Fangraphs projections give them one of the worst rotations in the entire Major Leagues. The lineup might be on the rise and the bullpen has bright spots, but this team well overachieved in 2022, and like the 2021 Detroit Tigers will almost certainly crash the following season. They do have a chance to pass Boston for fourth place in the division, but that's as high as they're going to go.
AL Central is next...
AL CENTRAL
The AL Central is easily the weakest division in the American League.
I was all set to go with the Chicago White Sox as the division champs, but looking at their roster, I'm now making a change. I predict Minnesota to win the division. Their bullpen is a question mark outside of Jhoan Duran, their lineup is full of strikeout heavy injury-prone and inconsistent players, but their rotation is easily the best in the division. Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle. They're all #3 starters, but all have upside and should be dependable.
If 1B Alex Kirilloff finally breaks out and they get bounce backs from RF Max Kepler and LF Joey Gallo, they might even have a chance at running away with the division. Of course failures to do so and more missed time for CF Byron Buxton might just allow their rivals to catch up.
I think that Cleveland well overachieved in 2022. The lineup is really weak behind 3B Jose Ramirez. 2B Andres Gimenez won't match his BABIP-fueled production from 2022 and I predict a sophomore slump for LF Steven Kwan. With SP Shane Bieber's declining velocity and SP Triston McKenzie's injury, their rotation is very top heavy and reliant on Bieber. Their bullpen is the best in the division however, and will be the main asset for them. Despite everything that I've just said, I can see a path to them winning the division just because it looks so bad and they have some upside, but I'm going with Minnesota as my pick.
I was ready to call them the division favorites, but that lineup is completely dependent on DH Eloy Jimenez and CF Luis Robert Jr. no longer being injury-prone. Their bullpen is shaky without CP Liam Hendriks. They lack much depth and I fully expect SP Dylan Cease to come back down to earth as his walk rate is just too high for him to be a Cy Young candidate again (3.82 in 2022). Fangraphs projects him for a 3.74 ERA in 2023. Add SP Lucas Giolito's struggles over the last few seasons and I'm not confident that they'll win the division. If all breaks right and they stay healthy then it's ossible, but I can't make that prediction.
As surprising as it might sound, I like their lineup and bullpen quite a bit when compared to the rest of the division. If their rotation wasn't the way it is, they actually could be in the conversation as darkhorses to win this division. Their rotation however is the way it is. Unless Brady Singer takes a step forward and someone else does as well, there's just no way that this is a division winning team. That said, don't be surprised if they're in contention for it longer than you might expect, their top of the lineup consisting of 3B Bobby Witt Jr., 1B Vinnie Pasquantino and C Salvador Perez is as good as any in the division and if they get Franmil Reyes back on track as the DH things will look very bright for them this season.
This isn't a good team, let's just say that. There's really no area on this team that I can say much positive things about. Their goal should be for more players to develop positively, such as 1B Spencer Torkelson, 3B Joey Kreidler and CF Riley Greene. It's hard to see much more than a last place finish for them.
The AL West...
AL WEST
The AL West may be very competitive this season.
The annual division winners are the favorites once again. They're going to miss the reigning AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander and with the declining 1B Jose Abreu and 2B Jose Altuve missing time due to injury, there's at least some path for the other teams. That path however requires a lot to go wrong for Houston and a lot to go right for the other teams. I safely pick Houston to repeat as division champs.
I'll be honest, it's a bit of a coin toss between them and the Seattle Mariners. If starting pitchers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi spend significant time on the injured list and if 3B Josh Jung and SP Jon Gray can't take steps forward, they probably finish in third place. I do like their bullpen and upside enough that with a lineup upgrade at the trading deadline this could very well be a playoff contending team. A lot just has to go right for them to compete for the division as well.
As I said in the paragraph above, it's a coin toss between them and Texas. I just don't see 3B Eugenio Suarez being as good as he was last season, think that RF Teoscar Hernandez will struggle moving to a pitcher's park and that cf Julio Rodriguez is headed for a sophomore slump. I just don't like their lineup or rotation enough to put them higher. Their ace is Luis Castillo and Texas's is Jacob deGrom and that's where it's at for me.
It's Shohei Ohtani and a bunch of back of the rotation starters. Tyler Anderson is projected by Fangraphs for a 4.48 ERA; Patrick Sandoval for a 3.78 ERA; Reid Detmers for a 4.23 ERA; Jose Suarez for a 4.42 ERA. Add a shaky bullpen and an injury-prone lineup where CF Mike Trout hasn't played 134 or more games since 2019 and 3B Anthony Rendon hasn't been healthy since signing with them, and there's very little to like about this team this season.
One look at their depth chart should have you asking if they're the worst team in the Majors. The answer is "probably". I don't think there's a point in even talking about them.
FINAL AL POSTSEASON SEEDS
1. Houston Astros
2. New York Yankees
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Rays
6. Texas Rangers
NL East is next!
NL EAST
As much as I would love to have picked the Miami Marlins, it's unlikely to happen. The Atlanta Braves winning the division for the SIXTH straight season is the most likely scenario. They have a solid pitching staff and the best lineup in the division (it's not even close in fact). Every hitter in their starting lineup can realistically hit 20 home runs. Think about that for a second. This is a loaded team that will be contending this season.
I know, I know. This is insane right?! Hold on though, the rotation is truly elite. Sandy Alcantara is the reigning NL Cy Young award winner; Jesus Luzardo is coming off of a 3.32 ERA/3.11 FIP season; Trevor Rogers is an ace when he's healthy (and he wasn't in 2022 until late in the season). Oh and he has an elite K-BB rate this Spring Training. I think that Jorge Soler's health will improve at DH and that he will have a big contract year. Bryan De La Cruz is a middle of the order bat and Jazz Chisholm Jr. just needs to stay healthy and I believe that he can. If 2B Luis Arraez is not far off from his AL batting champ performance in 2022 and the defense is stable, this is a good team. The bullpen could be the wild card here. Call me optimistic but anything can happen.
I explained my position on them before. Yes they won the pennant last season. If last season was played under the rules that we had in 2021 and before that they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Instead of talking about them as the NL champions, we'd be talking about how they haven't made the playoffs in over a decade. Yes, they signed SS Trea Turner. They also won't have RF Bryce Harper for months and just lost 1B Rhys Hoskins for the entire season. Fangraphs projected them to match their lowly 86 win total from 2022, when they just barely sneaked into the Postseason as the third Wild Card team. That was while Hoskins was still playing. Of course they can finish ahead of Miami, but I'll be optimistic and say that more things go right for us than them.
I wrote about them before as well. If you've been following this great game for years, then you should know by now that the hype means nothing and that plenty of 100 win teams crash the following season. In fact the Chicago Cubs went from 103-58-1 in 2016 to 92-70 in 2017; the Boston Red Sox went from 108-54 in 2018 and winning the World Series to 84-78 and missing the playoffs in 2019. You know what Boston has in common with the Mets? They both lost their previous season's closer. Edwin Diaz was the best closer in the game in 2022, he's now injured for the season.
The Mets rotation is anchored by two 40 year old aces. That's almost completely unprecedented. Max Scherzer just pitched his lowest inning total in a full season since the beginning of his career. His strikeout rate has been declining annually since 2019 too. Justin Verlander mostly missed 2020-2021 before a miraculous comeback last season. Maybe it's time for him to answer to Father Time, it would be a repeat of a similar event. Jose Quintana is a already injured for months and Kodai Senga is completely unproven. The lineup is honestly not impressive.
Let's ask Fangraphs... C Omar Narvaez? .223/.300/.320. 3B Eduardo Escobar? .234/.290/.401. LF Mark Canha? .240/.339/.364. CF Brandon Nimmo? .269/.368/.428. RF Starling Marte? .267/.324/.420. DH Daniel Vogelbach? .216/.348/.399. Yes they have 1B Pete Alonso, SS Francisco Lindor and 2B Jeff McNeil. That's not enough. They were projected for 91 wins by FG prior to the Diaz injyry. Most importantly, this is the New York Mets and they always disappoint.
They're really bad and I doubt anyone will argue that they're finishing last.
NL Central is next...
NL CENTRAL
I'm actually pretty surprised that they're being overlooked in favor of a worse team in St. Louis. Milwaukee has a top 5 rotation and a good bullpen. Their lineup is solid too with 30 home run threats 1B Rowdy Tellez and SS Willy Adames along with bounceback candidate DH Jesse Winker and breakout C William Conteras among others. I think that they will comfortably win the division that they won in 2021 and were on pace to win in 2022 before their surprising collapse.
They have a pretty bad rotation and 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado arent repeating their career years. I covered this before, but even Fangraphs expects them to lose 7 wins between those two. This is a young team with question marks around the lineup and a weak rotation, that's missing a potential HOF catcher Yadier Molina. Molina's replacement Willson Contreras is notoriously bad at defending, so I don't see much promise here.
If you squint, you kind of see the Minnesota Twins. Except it's a tougher division. If they were in the AL Central, they'd have a legit shot at the division, if everything went right. In the NL Central, they're a solid third place team lacking an ace, closer and middle of the order bats.
They're a young team without top of the rotation pitching and a weak lineup. They however can be better than Chicago or worse than Cincinnati. It's a coin toss with the last three teams in this division and either one can finish in third or in fifth place. It all depends on who breaks out, who declines and if they trade CF Bryan Reynolds at the trading deadline.
Basically what I said about Pittsburgh applies to Cincinnati (minus trading Bryan Reynolds). This is a team with a weak lineup and a weak bullpen, but that has a better rotation than Pittsburgh. Anything can happen and maybe they'll finish third, or maybe they'll finish fourth or fifth.
NL West is next...
NL WEST
The annual division champs got worse, but they still have enough to win the division. SP Julio Urias in his contract year along with ace Clayton Kershaw is a strong 1-2 punch and then there's their good bullpen (even without a set closer) and a still solid lineup anchored by 1B Freddie Freeman and RF Mookie Betts.
The San Diego Padres won 89 games last season and their rotation is lacking an ace. Yu Darvish is 36 and projected by Fangraphs for a 3.88 ERA. Joe Musgrove is injured and projected for a 3.73 ERA. Inconsistent and injury-prone Blake Snell is their best SP and he's projected for a 3.40 ERA and hasn't pitched over 128 innings since 2018. CP Josh Hader is coming off of a 5.22 ERA season that saw him traded by Milwauee; Fernando Tatis Jr. is now a RF who can't stay healthy and after missing all of last season is still serving his suspension for PED's; SS Xander Bogaerts lost his power and is now in a pitcher's park... The hype is there but they were lucky to beat the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card playoff series last year, and weren't expected to beat LA. They can still win this division, but LA is the safer pick.
Their rotation is heavily dependent on ace Zac Gallen and Merril Kelly; their bullpen is a mess and their lineup is potential breakout players and hopeful bouncebacks...along with 1B Christian Walker. This isn't a playoff team unless a lot goes right. Their bigest goal should be to secure third place away from San Francisco, whch should be possible but isn't a lock.
I'm surprised that this big market team continues to be cheap in the off-season and avoiding signing starting pitchers to multi-year deals. This team has a very average rotation, wih ace Logan Webb and a bunch of hopeful bounceback candidates. They have an average bullpen and a weak lineup. They're almost trying to be the Tampa Bay Rays, only worse in every way. They were amazingly lucky in 2022, but 2023 could be even worse than 2022.
Where do I even begin with this terrible team? Bad rotation? The average at best lineup? The weak bullpen? Their commitment to avoiding a rebuild is becoming legendary, but the lack of success is going string. Their bst hope is to avoid 100 losses.
FINAL NL POSTSEASON SEEDS
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Miami Marlins
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Postseason time....
POSTSEASON
AL WILD CARD PLAYOFF ROUND
Texas Rangers 2
Minnesota Twins 0
"Pitching wins championships" and Jacob deGrom probably makes the difference here. Texas looks like the better team and perhaps they can sweep Minnesota out of the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays 2
Toronto Blue Jays 1
This could go either way, but I think Tampa's superior rotation and a healthy Tyler Glasnow make the difference.
NL WILD CARD PLAYOFF ROUND
Philadelphia Phillies 2
Los Angeles Dodgers 1
LA usually lose early in the playoffs and with a healthy Bryce Harper in the mix, the defending National League champs can win a close series here. It can go either way, but I'm picking Philly.
Miami Marlins 2
San Diego Padres 1
Pitching is key here and The Fish have better pitching. Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo pitching in a pitcher's park in San Diego will alleviate it being on the road. San Diego win one, but Miami moves on. Hey, why not?1
AL DIVISION SERIES
New York Yankees 3
Texas Rangers 0
Someone might get swept, so why not Texas? Perhaps the Bronx Bombers go on a tear against a Texas team for once and Jacob deGrom struggle sin his return to New York.
Houston Astros 3
Tampa Bay Rays 1
Tampa get one win and maybe even find a way to get more than that, but Houston is clearly the better team and gets the job done.
NL DIVISION SERIES
Atlanta Braves 3
Miami Marlins 2
Maybe 'm being optimistic here, but The Fish push Atlanta to the limit with the pitching, before finally succumbing to a stronger Atlanta team.
Milwaukee Brewers 3
Philadelphia Phillies 1
Milwaukee overwhelms Philly with their pitching and move on to the NLCS against Atlanta.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
New York Yankees 4
Houston Astros 2
The New York Yankees have better starting pitching and have every desire in the world to finally beat Houston. Houston seem to be in the World Series every other year usually (2017, 2019, 2021, 2022) lately. Hard to predict 3 straight pennants and New York should be more motivated to win.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Atlanta Braves 4
Milwaukee Brewers 2
This is going to be good, but Atlanta is the better team so get the win in a tough series.
WORLD SERIES
New York Yankees 4
Atlanta Braves 2
New York has better starting pitching and will be more motivated to win. New York also always beats Atlanta.
So what do you guys think? Anything can happen like the 2021 San Francisco Giants so remember that what sounds unrealistic or crazy now may be normal after the season.
dark. Next. 3 surprising predictions for the season...