Miami Marlins: Responding to a Jesus Luzardo-for-Christopher Morel Mock Trade

The Bad

Like many sluggers in the modern MLB, Morel has a high strikeout tendency. Oakland A's outfielder led all of baseball (qualified hitters) with a 32.7% K-rate in 2023. Though he did not receive enough ABs to qualify, Morel posted a 31% mark. This would have been the sixth-worst in baseball.

Morel's 133 strikeouts in 2023 were a problem. As were his 137 Ks in 2022. As will be his 130 projected whiffs this season.

The slugger's 8.4% walk rate was also concerningly low. Morel very much profiles as a high-power, high strikeout, low OPB player who will build his career on the home run ball. Thankfully, he is very skilled at hitting home runs. But the Marlins cannot discount the plate discipline concerns.

The Ugly

Unfortunately, the metrics also indicate concerns with Morel's defense, particularly as a shortstop. For instance, Baseball Savant ranked 473 qualified players in terms of their defensive range and out-production. Want to guess where Morel ranked in 2023? #438... And this was with him playing an easier 2B as his primary infield position. This number should only decline if he shifts to shortstop.

Morel would be a perfect fit as a DH replacement for Jorge Soler. Or even a staple of one of Miami's corner outfield spots. But, unfortunately, he is not a realistic option to take over as Miami's starting shortstop in 2024 and beyond.

The Verdict

In many ways, this deal is similar to another Marlins' mock trade involving Gleyber Torres. At face value, it would be amazing to add a young, power-oriented, dynamic bat to the club. However, neither star slugger can be anything more than an emergency fill-in at shortstop. And the Marlins desperately need a major-league-caliber shortstop.

Luzardo's production must also be considered. Still just 26 years old, the former top prospect is poised to be a key part of Miami's rotation for years to come. The sudo-ace is also under team control until he hits free agency in 2027.

Additionally, Luzardo was rock-solid for the club in 2023. He pitched a career-high 178.2 innings, with 208 strikeouts, only 55 walks, a 3.58 ERA, and a 1.215 WHIP. In many ways, he provided the rotation anchoring production that the team expected from oft-injured ace Sandy Alcantara. Now, with Alcantara out for the 2024 season, Luzardo feels as important as ever.

This truly is a solid trade offer by Cubbies Crib. And, even considering the aforementioned concerns, it is super intruging. Morel's upside is too high to be taken lightly.

However, I hedge slightly toward respectfully declining this deal, primarily due to Morel's defensive concerns at shortstop. If he were a league-average (or close) defensive SS, I would honestly advocate for this deal. But, at the end of the day, ranking 438 out of 473 players is damning.

I will add one caveat to this analysis. IF Miami were to add a starting-caliber shortstop, either through free agency or trade (perhaps one of these options), AND another solid starter (perhaps one of these), it would be worth pulling the trigger on adding Morel as a DH and utility batter.

However, Unless the normally quiet Marlins quickly make several corresponding transactions, it would be best to retain Luzardo and seek to build their 2024 hopes around their starting pitching.