Why the Advanced Stats Show that Miami Marlins' Star Connor Norby has Room to Grow

The rebuilding Miami Marlins seem to have found a bright spot in newly acquired second baseman Connor Norby. Since joining Miami, the former Baltimore Orioles standout has posted:

• six home runs,
• a 3.29 batting average,
• a 1.043 OPS,
• 13 RBI,
• and two steals.

In many ways, Norby has already performed better than anyone could have hoped for. He has hit for average. He has produced stellar power for a player with a slight frame (5'10", 180lbs). And he has been an unquestioned bright for the 2024 Marlins while simultaneously giving hope for the future of the club.

However, while Norby's red-hot start is certainly impressive, the advanced metrics indicate that there may be some smoke-and-mirrors happening with his production. His barrel percentage and sweet-spot percentage are phenomenal. This is a key indicator that Norby is hitting the ball in an ideal location to maximize damage.

Unfortunately, the Rookie's Baseball Savant page also shows that he is making contact with power metrics that are well below league average. His 86 mph average exit velocity is surprisingly low, especially for the number of home runs he has produced. His 107.5 mph max exit velocity (MEV) is also poor, indicating that his maximum power potential may have a cap. For context, the league leaders in MEV surpass 120 mph.

It is worth noting that Norby had a reputation for hitting for power to the pull side during his minor league career. Advanced metrics show that this is something of a cheat code for softer-hitting players to produce in the power department.

However, considering the small sample size, it is sensible to wonder whether Norby's hot power bat is more of a flash-in-the-pan than a realistic long-term skill.

This by no means belittles the former Baltimore top prospect. The budding star has a super solid bat and a plus-hit tool. He should be a good source of batting average and has the potential to make a real impact with his power and his speed.

Fans would be wise to avoid projecting Norby as a perennial 30+ home run player. At least until these exit velocity numbers improve dramatically. The second baseman likely (currently) profiles as a 20+ homer, 8+ steal player with a .275+ average in the near future.

This is incredibly valuable, especially for a rebuilding squad like the Marlins. The 24-year-old also has plenty of time to build strength as he seeks to become a difference-maker in 2024 and beyond!