Yankees vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Saturday, Aug. 12 (Can Alcantara slow Yanks?)

How to bet on the Miami Marlins' matchup with the New York Yankees on Saturday.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22).
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22). / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins are battling for the final wild card spot in the National League, and they’ll look to avoid dropping a second straight game to the New York Yankees on Saturday. 

The Yankees have a ton of injuries in their rotation, going with an opener on Friday night before turning things over to the youngster Randy Vasquez in a win. 

The team hasn't announced a starter for Saturday’s game, but it could go with an opener or youngster Jhony Brito, who pitched 1.2 innings on Aug. 6 and has been in the rotation at points this season. 

Sandy Alcantara (4-10, 4.28 ERA) gets the ball for Miami in this one. After winning the NL Cy Young in 2022, Alcantara has not been as sharp in 2023, but he does have Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.91, suggesting he’s been slightly better than his ERA. 

Can Alcantara lead Miami to a win in this matchup?

Here are the latest odds and my best bet: 

Yankees vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Yankees vs. Marlins prediction and pick

While I think Alcantara gives the Marlins the edge against a subpar Yankees offense, I can’t back them to win this game as major favorites. 

Miami is just 8-15 in Alcantara’s 23 starts and has won just one of his outings since the start of July. If Alcantara was pitching poorly, I’d understand that record, but since his start on July 2, he has a 3.09 ERA in 46.2 innings of work. 

I’m not sure which direction the Yankees will go in this one, but their bullpen has been the strength of their staff, ranking No. 1 in Major League Baseball with a 3.17 ERA. 

That, and the fact that both teams are in the bottom half of the league in runs scored over the last 15 days leads me to the UNDER in this matchup. 

Alcantara may be fortunate, like many other pitchers this season (I’m looking at you, Jameson Taillon) to be facing this Yankees lineup that has allowed some poor pitchers to get on track. Sandy’s stuff is too good to fade him completely here. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.