Schedule says Miami Marlins can't afford another slow start in 2026

The Miami Marlins have to hit the ground running in 2026.

That's really all there is to it, provided the club is serious about breaking through and finishing above .500 this season. I was this close to typing "contending", but they were mathematically alive until the season's final weekend despite a losing record. So contend they did!

Any handwringing over March and April losses can often seem silly, especially in a sport where plenty of the top contenders treat the regular season as an extended spring training. However, that is not a position the Miami Marlins tend to find themselves. Even in a marathon not a sprint, 162-game slog of a season, every loss counts. Indeed, that was the chief reason why so many Marlins fans became incensed over the ridiculously long leash Clayton McCullough and the front office kept giving arms like George Soriano and Josh Simpson in late relief last summer. While plenty of last year's lucky wins could have just as easily been losses, the multiple instances where losing seemed to almost be the plan really grated as Miami remained alive in the race down the stretch.

Fortunately, this season's schedule features a very generous soft start to the 2026 campaign.

Unfortunately, it becomes a blood bath for the Marlins in very short order.

On the plus side? Six straight games at home against the Rockies and the White Sox- MLB's model examples of dysfunction. You can't ask a much a easier start than that. The latest PECOTA projections have both clubs finishing miles behind Miami in the standings.

After that...oy vey. In the interest of painting as bleak of a picture as possible, let's throw out the April Fools Day finale against the White Sox and lump it into March. After an off-day, the Marlins will play only two series against teams projected to be worse than them over the ensuing two months.

You read that right. Two months. Four of the next five teams they face after that White Sox series made the playoffs last season. The other team is the Braves, in Atlanta. A quick get right series against the Cardinals is all that stands between that gauntlet and a West Coast swing against the Dodgers and Giants. A long homestand does follow, and the presence of two long May homestands is your glass half-full argument for this schedule. However, that first homestand is a top heavy one with the Phillies and Orioles before giving way to woeful Washington (who went 7-6 against Miami last year). The second? All Braves and Mets in loanDepot, before the club hits the road for more Mets and a series against the AL Champion Blue Jays.

Just a truly brutal stretch of games. The only opponents I've left out in that span are the Rays and Twins, whom the Marlins face on a six-game roadtrip splitting up those homestands that could prove critical. The weakest per Pecota of the teams expected to outperform Miami in 2026, success there would a long way towards smoothing over some of the bumps the Marlins will surely face in the early going.

Obviously, plenty can change between now and first pitch of each and every one of those series to throw off that calculus. Pick your cliche- there's a reason they play the games, said games aren't won on paper, what have you.

Be that as it may though, there's no denying that the Miami Marlins can't afford to waste the gift they were given during the season's first week. Not to throw another cliche at you, but if the Fish don't swim against those early foes, expect the 2026 season to sink fast.