The biggest domino of the 2024 MLB offseason has officially fallen. Superstar Juan Soto spurned the New York Yankees to sign a record 15-year, $765 million contract. While this historic move will directly impact the future of several franchises, it will also have a ?-fold effect on the Miami Marlins.
1) Soto is back in the NL East (and will be for a long time!)
Marlins' fans will remember a 19-year-old Soto leading the post-Bryce-Harper Washington Nationals to a World Series championship in 2019. The lefty outfielder was a nightmare during his time in Washington, posting a batting average of .291 and an OBP of .427 (both the highest he's had with any singular team).
For the record, Soto has more career at-bats against the Marlins than any other team (303). Despite Miami's generally solid pitching, the multi-time All-Star has terrorized the Fish to the tune of a .303 average, .438 OBP, and 14 home runs. Fans can expect this same production level now that Soto is back in the same division.
2) Soto's Contract is DOUBLE what the Marlins gave to Giancarlo Stanton
Do you remember your initial reaction to Miami's 13-year, $325 million deal in 2014? The baseball world as all a buzz after this massive pact. Some though it would ruin the game of baseball.
Stanton had just mashed an NL-best 37 homers and a .555 slugging percentage as he established himself as one of the league's premier power hitters. It felt like a king's ransom.
Flash forward to today, and Soto's historic deal contains more than double the guaranteed money than Stanton's. In fact, the deal pushes Giancarlo's numbers just inside the top 10 of riches contracts in league history (tied for 10th with Corey Seager and Yoshinobu Yamamoto).
What was once unthinkable has now become borderline affordable.
3) It SHOULD Motivate Owner Bruce Sherman to Spend
A stat that has been floated around consistently is the fact that Soto's Average Annual Value (AAV) of $53.66 million is nearly equal to the Marlins' full projected payroll of $71 million. If owner Bruce Sherman and President Peter Bendix choose to pinch pennies (something that is highly possible for a team in full-rebuild mode), this gap could draw even closer.
Meanwhile, Mets' owner Steven Cohen has received universal praise for committing to winning, establishing his club as a serious contender, landing the big free agent prize, and stealing a valuable asset from an in-city rival. It was the ultimate power move. And Cohen's fanbase is rightfully ecstatic!
If Sherman is paying attention, he should learn two lessons from the Soto deal. First, there is no better way to connect with a fan base and build rapport with an organization than through ownership showing their commitment. The Marlins have talked extensively about how they are spending money off the field. While this can have value, it cannot replace on-field production.
Second, Sherman needs to be aware that fans are developing a deeper understanding of the fact that MLB owners have money to spend. The idea that "small-market" clubs are too cash-poor to build a solid roster is false.
Sure, Cohen is the richest owner in baseball. But all owners have the capacity to invest more than the Marlins have. Even the lowly (Sacramento) Athletics shelled out a three-year, $67 million deal to veteran pitcher Luis Severino. There is no excuse for the Marlins to hide behind shields while the rest of the league seeks to build proper teams.
I understand the importance of rebuilding through prospects. But the worst-kept secret in Miami is the fact that Sherman and company could have made a run at Soto if they wanted to. They could with top free agents like Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and more.
I hope that Sherman and Bendix are watching closely. And that fans and analysts are calibrating their expectations accordingly.