Three takeaways on Chris Paddack return and what it could mean for 2026 Miami Marlins

Well when the offseason first started, there was plenty of buzz about the Miami Marlins bringing back a former pitching prospect.

Granted, that name was Michael King, who ended up resigning with San Diego. Some fans on the Marlins socials had started to dream of a Zac Gallen return lately as he continued to languish in free agency. Looking to be no dice on that score as well. Perhaps the problem was that those were 2016 Marlins draft picks, because it turns out the return of a 2015 pick was what was going to be in the cards for Peter Bendix and Miami.

Chris Paddack is back.

Signed to a one-year, $4 million MLB deal with room for extra incentives Monday afternoon, the Marlins officially reunite with their former prospect that they famously flipped for closer Fernando Rodney early in the 2016 season. It's a move that somewhat uncharitably gets brought up as just another swing and miss on the trade front from Miami during that era. Rodney was clearly not as good as his 0.38 ERA at the time of the trade suggested, but a 2.31 FIP and 0.87 WHIP weren't anything to sneeze at either, and certainly didn't portend the horrific 5.89 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.80 WHIP to follow. Miami's sin that year was not spending on more quality relief help in the offseason more so than moving the out of nowhere Paddack for a veteran arm once the 2016 team caught fire in the early goings. Honestly, it wasn't even the worst trade the Marlins with the Padres that season, as that honor goes to even more infamous attempted trade (look it up) to deal both Luis Castillo and Josh Naylor for Andrew "Don't Shave Me" Cashner and Colin "You Don't Need To See My Physical" Rea at the trade deadline.

Anyway, all water under the bridge. After a 2.9 WAR 2019 rookie season with the Padres that lined up perfectly from a bad Marlins optics standpoint with the 57-win nadir of Bruce Sherman's rebuild, Paddack has only managed to tack on 0.5 WAR worth of career value since per Baseball Reference. The 4.95 ERA he put up in 21 games with the Twins last season was his best work since 2022, when he posted a 4.03 ERA in a short but possibly second best in his career campaign. And even that 4.95 ERA (backed by a best since 2022 WHIP as well) doesn't tell the whole 2025 story because he was pretty abysmal after being traded to the Tigers...finishing with a 5.35 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 1.285 WHIP overall.

I separate the numbers because the Twins used him exclusively as a starting pitcher, whereas the Tigers moved him to the bullpen. To say that went poorly would be an understatement, as he surrendered 15 ER across 17 IP in those final six appearances. Not what you want to see. So he might just be that sub 5.00 ERA veteran arm after all.

Yay?

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for Bruce Sherman spending money. But as essentially every platform has pointed out, this smacks far more of the 2025 Cal Quantril signing than something that is really likely to move the needle for Miami's competitive chances in 2026. A relative to market prices low cost move where the most likely outcome is hoping some pitching desperate team offers a prospect for him midseason. Paddack's performance in a vacuum though? Color me unexcited.

What is interesting to me is what this move means for the rest of the 2026 Miami Marlins roster.

Three takeways are listed here, but they all largely go back to the fact the Marlins just agreed to spend $4 million on him. That's a lot by Sherman standards, even if the team did "spend big" on Pete Fairbanks this winter. Plenty should be read into that kind of investment by Miami, especially in a year where they are still dealing with the ramifications of losing a big chunk of television revenue.

Firstly, roll back those hopes of both Robby Snelling and Thomas White starting the season in the Opening Day rotation. Paddack just became the starting pitcher with the most rotation spot security of anyone not named Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez. He's playing, as much as his body can take. One of the rookies may still make it to the show in March, but two feels all but impossible as of this writing.

Second, this is where fans of Braxton Garrett should really be getting nervous. All those things like veteran intangibles, playoff experience, innings eating and so on Miami would seem to be hoping to get from Paddack...they can get from Garrett if he's on the roster. Most Marlins fans probably aren't counting on Garrett returning to his 2023 form, but even most of the Garrett skeptics were probably expecting better production from Garrett than Paddack has offered folks since 2019. Brax's career WAR is nearly double Paddack's, he's still arbitration eligible, and he's slated to earn less than half of what Paddack now will in 2026. I just don't think the Marlins cut that check if they're expecting Garrett to pitch any kind of meaningful innings load this season.

Lastly, who leaves? The Marlins will need to make a transaction to accommodate this signing. Miami has done some modest reshuffling the last few weeks, acquiring one low level pitcher and then dropping them to make room for another. While Paddack might not be the most exciting signing the Marlins could have made, he does move the needle more Miami's 2026 competitive chances than say, Garrett Acton or Bradley Blalock. Betting on the reshuffling trend to continue and for one of those names to go could be the smart play, although the recent jettisoning of Victor Mesa Jr. does draw attention to the fact that the biggest sin a Marlins player can make of late is not being one Bendix brought in. There are a few of those left...starting with the aforementioned Braxton Garrett if Miami is indeed concerned about him.

Of course, the Marlins could also just wait until pitchers and catchers report on Wednesday and stick Ronny Henriquez on the 60-day IL. That move is obviously coming at some point, but an additional roster move is still very much a possibility. After all, plenty of interesting, low cost options are still on the market, or will get there as spring training plays out.

For now though, Paddack will finally get to start an MLB game for the team that drafted him.