Time Will Tell What Lesson the Miami Marlins Learned From Jesus Luzardo Trade

In case you missed it, things have gone pretty well for Jesus Luzardo since leaving the Miami Marlins.

Not all trades can be winners, folks.

Without question, much of what new Miami Marlins President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix has done since taking over has been met with a good deal of praise. Dumping higher salaried veterans for prospects? The enmity for that is all on team owner Bruce Sherman.

Baseball fans in South Florida seem to be quickly appreciating that Bendix isn't cutting the checks, just making the best of the hand Sherman has dealt him. Connor Norby, Agustin Ramirez, Kyle Stowers, and multiple relief pitchers he's plucked from the scrap heap have worked out and then some. Yet the trade that saw Jesus Luzardo dumped the moment he was healthy enough to package off to a willing contender?

That's one that Bendix probably wants back right about now.

Certainly, there is plenty of time for Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd to become big league regulars and even the scales. Right now, though? It's very clear that if the Marlins had simply held on to Luzardo a little longer, they could have netted a much bigger prospect return.

As of Wednesday, according to FanGraphs, Jesús Luzardo has a higher WAR than any player on the Marlins or Phillies rosters — and even higher than Tariq Skubal, who’s considered by many to be the best pitcher in baseball. Luzardo currently holds the second-highest WAR among all starting pitchers, trailing only Houston’s Hunter Brown.

Putting it simply, Luzardo has been elite. Of course, he also still carries the baggage of the same injury track record that likely got him traded this quickly in the first place. This was a trade Bendix probably made believing he'd get hurt in March. Which was a very valid fear. While there's plenty of May left for that next injury to at least come in a month starting with an M, it's becoming a lot harder to say Miami did the right thing when they pounced on Luzardo's clean bill of health and sent him to Philly.

The only question that matters now is what lesson Peter Bendix and the Miami Marlins take away from this situation as trade season approaches.

Why does this matter? Because the eyes of every fan of MLB trade deadline action, not to mention the eyes of every rival GM, will be upon the Miami Marlins this summer as they wait to see what the team decides to do about staff ace Sandy Alcantara. Granted, their eyes will also be on Alcantara himself, searching for any hint of the 2022 Cy Young winner still being inside the 7.99 ERA pitcher working his way back from Tommy John surgery in 2025.

But as the kids say, or at least did at one point, "real ones know." Command is the last thing to come back typically for a pitcher following this kind of procedure. All teams know that, and most teams will be willing to at least kick the tires on adding a pitcher with Top 10 upside that has one of the sweetest contracts in baseball.

Kick the tires, provided they are getting a sweetheart deal that is. Knowing that Alcantara is still probably an All-Star caliber starter is not the same thing as seeing it, even if he will make $8 million less than Jordan Montgomery this season. Unless Sandy just turns it on for at least four starts heading into the deadline-not impossible-the Marlins would be selling very low on their top asset.

So what will Bendix choose to do? Sell low, but still get something decent for his ace? Or roll the dice and hold out, hoping he comes back so strong later this summer or next spring that the delay is worth it?

In other words, do what many Marlins fans think he did with Luzardo, or do what many Marlins fans wish he did with Luzardo.

The thing is, I'm not entirely convinced Bendix ever has sold low. At least not in his estimation. Luis Arraez just didn't seem to be a player he believed in, a sentiment that seems sort of common in MLB front offices given his continued lack of a long term contract. Jazz Chisholm? Moved him when he was healthy and playing well. Luzardo? Too many injuries to count in his career. Jake Burger? Nice guy, but a streaky, inconsistent profile. None of these players had to be dealt when they were, but Bendix chose to trade them before the bottom fell out.

Which means that if I'm correct, Sandy isn't going anywhere until he does start looking like a All-Star again. There have been zero whispers of health being the concern here, no mention of any kid of irrevocable damage. Alcantara's velocity remains what it was. His injury history comprises just the one injury. Bendix may very well end up trading Alcantara. In fact, it's almost a certainty. But there's no rule that it has to happen by July of 2025. Just July of 2027.

On the other hand, it's also easy to see Bendix as a "trust the process" sort. Trading Luzardo when he did was probably good process. Again, it's been a laundry list of injuries. Even if you throw out the time he busted his hand after a frustrating video game, the medical red flags had been legion. Unless the trade only happened because he couldn't trade Sandy, it's hard to fault the thinking.

Any handwringing that has taken place over it in light of what Luzardo has done presupposes that the Marlins would have traded him before an injury happens, but well after the time they did actually move him.

All of this boils down to one frightening possibility. If Bendix does believe Sandy is on a rapid decline, or not fully healthy, then he could be incentivized to trade him as soon as possible. Which would mean trusting in the Luzardo process, and just hating the result.

For my money, I think it's more likely Bendix holds, giving the appearance of taking the lesson from the Luzardo trade of not rushing a deal. Then again, two quality starts and another pitching injury to a contender could leave me with plenty of egg on my face.