Why fans fretting Miami Marlins extension misses need to take a breath

The Miami Marlins should spend more money on payroll.

In other news, the sky is blue. The grass is green. One should try to avoid the Dolphin Expressway during rush hour. All of these things are equally true, but if saying them aloud makes you feel better, have at it. You'll never hear me disagree, as many, many articles of mine over the years can attest. South Florida baseball fans have been wronged by the Marlins for decades on that score.

However...folks throwing their hands in the air over the recent reports of the Marlins failing to come to terms with Eury Perez and Kyle Stowers on contract extensions really need to take a beat. Why? Because, at best, they are failing to appreciate how negotiation works. At worst? They are failing to see the big picture.

Believe me, I can hear all the objections. It's pretty easy work, that, seeing as how I've made them myself almost every year since the 1997 World Champions were gutted while the confetti was still falling on Little Havana. You can say it's not a negotiation if it's not in good faith, or that they are only talking so they can say that they talked. They'll never be able to afford to keep anyone. Nothing ever changes.

All excellent points...but also all points being made that probably have a lot more to do with the fact that the Marlins didn't offer Pudge Rodriguez that fourth year following the 2003 championship or the collective trauma of whatever the 2012 season was than anything this current Marlins front office has done. Again, no denying the thirty plus years of pattern. You, we, have been conditioned to think a certain way about this Marlins organization, for many good, and by good I mean horrible, reasons.

But that has to be it, right? I mean, no one is really upset about the fact that the Marlins didn't think a guy with a longer MLB track record of being bad than being good, with less than two full seasons of total MLB experience, had done enough to prove he's worth $100 million? Or that one year ago, they stuck a pin in contract talks over $15 million for a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery that had never had a completely healthy MLB season?

That is certainly what it sounds like right now though, from a considerable portion of the Marlins fanbase, and perhaps one or two prominent pundits I respect too much to name. Both camps would be well served in taking a breath. It's a long way to Opening Day, with a whole winter's worth of meetings and contract talks to get through. That's an eternity for any team to figure things out, not just Miami. Now, if April comes, and nary a future star has been locked up long-term? Not a single free agent you've heard of before added? I'll be right there with you, pitchfork in hand. For now? I'm willing to be patient.

Partly, this is because negotiation involves give and take. If it hadn't become one of the more politically loaded phrases out there, this article's title might have included the words "art of the deal". Back and forth is a natural part of these things. The very nature of the arbitration system means the Marlins aren't going to do anything they don't feel will ultimately help them, especially when they haven't even started earning arbitration money yet. Miami doesn't have the resources to splash the pot either, be it with money or recent championship rings. No godfather offers forthcoming from Bruce Sherman or Peter Bendix that will make someone sign on the dotted line without a second thought. They have no choice but to haggle.

Furthermore, all that's been reported is the dollars, not the years. Clarity there matters, because it would change the math significantly. If the Marlins offered Perez and Stowers seven-year deals, then yeah, the team is being pretty darn cheap. What's $15 million stretched out until 2034? How dare they undervalue Stowers like that! But if those were just four or five year deals? Suddenly, it's easy to see how even that $15 million discrepancy for Perez could, frustrating as it is, have a real impact on what Miami is able to put on the field the next couple seasons. Not to mention the difference between Stowers being a $10 million or $20 million AAV man. In the first scenario, he's an affordable cornerstone of a young and emerging team. In the second, he's earning more money than Sandy Alcantara, and the Marlins are running one or two more Eric Wagamans out there as a result. In that scenario, the Marlins are overpaying from the jump.

That last bit is the essential bit for Miami here, because it's hardly what you want for a team with limited financial resources trying to take a step forward on the field. The Marlins simply can't afford to miss on any extension or free agent decision. Everything that has gone right for the Marlins under this ownership group can be traced to the immensely successful and team favorable Alcantara extension. Everything that has gone wrong financially? See that Avisail Garcia deal. Both were in the same $50 million neighborhood that the Marlins and Stowers are apparently divided on. So there's very recent proof of concept for how a mistake of that nature can cripple the franchise in one case, and how an excellent player that had done a lot more to prove their value only needed $50 million in another.

Basically, I'm not convinced that any conclusions can be drawn from the fact the Marlins haven't agreed to terms on an extension with anyone yet. Certainly not any negative ones. Without question, this is a franchise that is in the position of actions speaking louder than words, where fans are going to need to see it to believe it.

Right now though? Marlins fans should just be content to wait and see, and trust that where is smoke, there is usually at least some fire.