Why the Miami Marlins are poised to trade Sandy Alcantara by the 2025 Trade Deadline

The Miami Marlins have completed a trade sending prized pitcher Jesus Luzardo to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for minor leaguers Starlyn Caba and outfielder Emaarion Boyd. This most recent move was one of many in which President Peter Bendix has exchanged established talent for valued prospects.

Miami's depth chart is now void of high-end MLB talent, except for one player: former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. While the Marlins' ace reportedly will not be moved before opening day, with rumors already swirling, one cannot help but wonder whether the uber-talented Alcantara's day in South Beach could be numbered.

The club currently have $31,550,000 currently allocated on their payroll. Sandy's $17.3 million salary accounts for over half that number. If history is any indicator, a salary that large is always at risk of being moved. But when?

It makes sense for Miami to keep their franchise player through Opening Day. He is one of the very few needle movers when it comes to ticket and merchandise sales. And he is the clear clubhouse leader.

Alcantara's trade value is likely at an all-time low as he recovers from Tommy John surgery that cost him the entirety of the 2024 season. The franchise was still able to move an oft-injured Luzardo for a respectable haul. However, it makes sense to re-establish Sandy as a bonafide ace. Past that point, the overinflated pitching market will be tempting for Bendix to capitalize on.

The market will assuredly pay top dollar for a healthy Alcantara. The Giants, Orioles, and Cubs have all been connected to ace-level pitchers this offseason. It also makes sense for clubs like the Mets, Tigers, Red Sox, and more to pursue a mid-season boost to their rotation.

One of these teams could sign free-agent gem Corbin Burnes. However, there are too many buyers and not enough aces. Could Miami reasonably ask for most club's best prospects? Simple economics indicate Bendix is well poised for his biggest trade haul since will retain their ace with hopes of capitalizing on his value at the the Marlins.

Losing Alcantara feels inevitable. If a buyer-heavy market indeed develops, the odds of Sandy being moved before the 2025 trade deadline are high. At best, the club by retain their ace with hopes of capitalizing his value at next offseason winter meetings.