Why the Miami Marlins could be worse In 2025

As was mentioned here last week, and about every five minutes by someone on social media, the Miami Marlins aren't expected to be particularly good this season.

However, the case was made then that there are causes for optimism, and that the Miami Marlins might actually improve if a few things break their way. Perhaps even dramatically improve.

Unfortunately, that was the best case scenario piece. The worst case, or even just the generally expected case, is far more likely. The case where the Marlins are, once again, embarrassingly bad to a degree worthy of potentially a high draft pick and certainly national mockery.

If their current level of offseason spending is anything to go by, a certain level of futility might even be the hope here. As of this writing, the Miami Marlins have committed to spending as much money in MLB free agency to help the club succeed as you or I have. That could change between now and Opening Day of course, particularly if Miami's signature offensive offseason acquisition makes the team. That would be one Eric Wagaman, who turned the head of at least one MLB executive hitting .250 with a .270 OBP in 72 ABs for the Angels last year. Wagaman would make a cool $770,000 if he did so.

Yet whether Wagaman makes the team or not...the Miami Marlins still would rank dead last amongst all 30 MLB teams in terms of free agent spending the last two offseasons, per BrooksGate. Not that money solves all problems by any stretch (looking at you Avisail Garcia), but such little investment in a deeply flawed roster isn't exactly cause for hope either.

In short, while there really are reasons to be excited about the 2025 Miami Marlins, there are plenty of red flags as well. Some which don't even have to do with the club's seeming willingness to run the risk of censure from MLB over misuse/lack of use of revenue sharing funds in the hopes of obtaining the top pick in the 2026 MLB draft. Obstacles that would be almost insurmountable to overcome.

Such as...

If The Pitching Thin Miami Marlins Get Even Thinner At Starting Pitcher

Pitching remains a strength for the Miami Marlins, but for how long?

Sandy Alcantara should be back, but for how long exactly? That's not injury concern talking either- one injury is not enough to shake the confidence in an iron man like Sandy. This past summer, it was reported that the Marlins expressly told Alcantara he would not be traded before Opening Day. All well and good for baseball fans salivating over that Sandy-Paul Skenes showdown on March 27th...but what happens on March 28th? While that would admittedly be a bit unlikely, a midsummer departure wouldn't shock anyone. In fact, the real shock would come from that not happening if Alcantara is healthy and back to form. He's the highest paid player on the roster for a small-market team not actively contending. Let's just say that's not a player who needs to be making any real estate purchases close to the ballpark.

Of course, as much as the Marlins fan in me wants to believe Alcantara will bounce right back to his Cy Young caliber form, reinjury isn't an impossibility. The same goes for it taking a few months to shake off the rust, or the grim reality that the rule changes introduced in 2023 impacted his performance far more than any slowly worsening injury did. At any rate, elite Alcantara production fueling the 2025 Marlins is not guaranteed.

Speaking of not guaranteed, the Tommy John recoveree just discussed probably shouldn't even be the greatest health concern in the Miami Marlins rotation. Alcantara has completed a major league season without injury, after all.

That's not a statement that can be made about any of Miami's other returning starting pitchers at present.

Ryan Weathers? Missed a big chunk of last season. Edward Cabrera? Has missed parts of many, not counting the parts he missed for being too terrible to roster. Eury Perez? Recovering from Tommy John as well. Furthermore, barring a miracle, he'll be a proven commodity returning to a team miles from contention. Meaning he won't be rushed, will be handled with kid gloves once he does, and will then face the same unproven questions of whether his body can hold up to MLB pitching that everyone but Sandy will need to answer.

Any rookies called up will by definition be even more unproven. Any veteran help signed, by virtue of being willing to sign for a contract the Miami Marlins would offer, will bring their own baggage. The club's good relievers? Only the most certain to be traded commodities on the roster.

Bottom-line, by the time the calendar turns to August, the vast majority of the pitchers Marlins fans have any real cause to feel good about will either be traded or on the injured list. It'll be fun while it lasts, but the smart money says it won't last for long.

Particularly...

If The Miami Marlins' Clubhouse Culture Is An Issue

Before diving into new Miami Marlins manager Clayton McCullough, we need to talk a little more about Skip Schumaker.

You know, the 2023 MLB Manager of the Year winner the team opted to move on from.

Focusing on the positive last week, Schumaker was referred to as always having one foot out the door because his family lived on the opposite side of the country. The glass half full view was that a newly hired, and hired by the current regime, manager with Florida-based family ties would help keep everyone on the same page. Implicitly, some blame there for how 2024 went down fell on Schumaker's shoulders.

And perhaps that did bother a couple players, deep down in their heart of hearts. Maybe between the 0-9 start and the Arraez trade, Skip did start to mail it in. Maybe there was some kind of disconnect between manager and player.

Yet none of that changes the fact that Schumaker was widely respected throughout MLB circles. This man chose not to manage in 2025 far more than other teams made that choice for him. Even if they did, there's no denying this fact about Schumaker's approach:

It was all about winning. Every day. Every inning of every game.

What kind of message does it send to the Miami Marlins players that either the organization let that guy walk, or that a guy obsessed with winning had zero interest in staying one second longer than he was contractually obligated to do?

Nothing good would be the answer. The Marlins front office just, quite publicly, repudiated winning. How does a culture get built around that? Why would any player that was around last season be inclined to step up their game, when the loudest voice for doing so was just shown the door?

Even in the best case scenario where McCullough is an outstanding teacher with the patience of a saint, fully dedicated to developing Miami's young talent...that development is often a slow and painful process. It means testing pitchers to the breaking point, and then seeing how they handle the disappointment of breaking. It means seeing how your young hitters handle an 0 for the homestand slump. Do they shake it off, or drag it into an 0 for April?

Odds are the answers to those questions don't equate to too many wins.

Especially...

If The Miami Marlins Get More Subtraction From Subtraction

At the end of last season, only three teams in all of MLB scored fewer runs than the Miami Marlins.

Of course, sometimes the ball does bounce your way. At the close of the 2023 season, only four teams scored fewer runs than Miami, and that squad still made the playoffs.

Obviously, there was a bit of serendipity at work for the 2023 Marlins. Regression was going to happen regardless. Then Peter Bendix ensured it by failing to resign Jorge Soler and trading Luis Arraez before Mother's Day. Oh, also not doing much of anything to meaningfully bolster the MLB roster, a trend that continues to this day.

The most recent example of that would be the trade of Jake Burger, last season's home run and RBI leader. For those keeping score at home, the Burger trade continues a very sad Miami Marlins tradition of moving on from the previous season's home run leader that goes all the way back to the Opening Day 2018 if you throw out the 2020 Covid shortened season. Giancarlo Stanton's 2017 MVP campaign was the last time a Marlins full season home run leader defended their title.

Now, no disrespect to .OBP, wRC+, or WPA aficionados out there, but folks still really dig the long ball. Constantly moving on from proven mashers is no way to enthrall a fanbase. A couple of these moves were somewhat understandable- money in the case of Stanton, absolute disinterest in being here a second longer in the case of J.T. Realmuto. Burger though, who had not yet even qualified for arbitration? Even if the organization thought they could find a better everyday player, his 2025 salary would have been more than reasonable for a bench piece.

Hard to conclude that an active interest in being worse wasn't part of the calculus here.

As for the players that will take his place? Sure, they could hit the ground running and be overnight stars. Until it doesn't happen, that is definitely a possibility. In just the same way that until every last free agent is signed, the Miami Marlins could add on some payroll to make fans and MLB investigators happy.

However, it needs to be asked, why would Miami have any interest in allowing such production to happen for 162 games?

Is it a lock that young kids like Deyvision De Los Santos and Agustin Ramirez don't see their service time manipulated? Be it hitter or pitcher, why would anyone whose clock hasn't started be allowed to start it before May at the earliest? Recent rule changes do somewhat incentivize earlier prospect promotions, but handsomely enough to entice low payroll clubs? The jury is still out on that one. Even in the case of the younger players who debuted last year, why wouldn't some phantom IL stints and load management be expected? Plenty of arguments to be made either way.

If the Marlins do sign a couple proven veterans, and they do rake...would they be retained all season? Or would they just be flipped for more A-level prospects years away from the majors come trade deadline time? There shouldn't be any doubt about what happens in that case.

No matter how you slice it, at least in terms of wins and losses, there is a much greater chance that the Miami Marlins get even worse before they start to get better.