Mike Redmond: Why The Marlins Should Have Waited

Aug 31, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Miami Marlins manager Mike Redmond (11) walks to an umpire to argue a call in the ninth inning of their game against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. The Braves won 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

By now, most of you are certainly aware of the Marlins extending Mike Redmond’s contract an additional 2 years through 2017. While the exact figures are yet to come out, judging by the Marlins President of Baseball Operations Mike Hill, Miami was the driver in getting Redmond extending.

"“It has been such a great year for us and a tremendous step we’ve taken,” president of baseball operations Michael Hill told FOX Sports Florida’s telecast. “We’ve spoken so much about continuity and building blocks and we spent a long time over the last few days and weeks with our owner Jeffrey Loria about our direction and where we want to go. We felt there was no better message to deliver to the people of South Florida than to tell them our manager Mike Redmond has been extended through the 2017 season.”"

I have waited a day to reserve judgement and do a little digging. For our loyal readers, it is no secret that I am not a big fan of Mike Redmond. My biggest complaint about Red is his old school way of managing the game. His frequent decisions that fly in the face of advanced statistics are maddening to me. I believe that the numbers, while they don’t tell the whole picture, give valuable insight into small advantages that can be utilized by teams.

This is one of the reasons that I feel the Marlins jumped the gun in extending Redmond’s contract. I do understand that Miami, maybe more than most teams, needs to appear to have a level of continuity due to past personnel decisions. That is the best argument for extending him. I believe I have the best argument against the extension.

The front office has pointed to the 15 game improvement that Miami has enjoyed this season. While that is certainly something to be proud of, I don’t think that Redmond should be given all the credit for this turnaround. Much like Joe Maddon isn’t completely blamed for Tampa Bay’s down year this year, I would caution against the crowning of Redmond as suddenly a much better manager then when he helmed a team that lost 100 games.

I would give more credit to the emergence of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Henderson Alvarez, as well as an almost full season of Giancarlo Stanton for the turnaround. But could those players be only partially responsible for the Marlins improvement? I think there is another component that needs to be mentioned.

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Luck.

Most people don’t want to admit that their team was lucky when they experience success. This is natural as we want to see our team improving based on their merits rather than something that is out of their control. One stat in particular is very indicative of luck, and that stat is 1-run victories. This ties in with the Pythagorean Theory that basically says your win/loss records is directly correlated to your runs scored verse your runs allowed (groundbreaking, I know). This theory also means that a 1-run loss has the same variance as a 1-run victory, and that the difference between the two is much closer than say a 7-run loss and a 7-run victory.

The rampant change in year to year also helps to highlight the randomness of the 1-run record. Historically, you don’t need to go far to see this in action. In 2012 the Baltimore Orioles went 29-9 in 1-run games, and rode that record right into the post season. Many people picked the Orioles to return in 2013 due to a largely similar roster. Unfortunately they finished 4th in the A.L. East that year and saw their record fall back to 20-31 in 1-run games. As they head into the postseason this year, they have regained their mojo with a 32-23 record in these games. For those following at home, that is 20 games over .500, 11 games under, and 9 over.

So where does that leave the Marlins? Last year Miami had a dismal record in 1-run games at 24-35. This year Miami is 35-29 in those same games. That is quite the improvement. The idea behind that record is that a .500 team would have a .500 record in 1-run games. With Miami posting a 24-35 record, this correlates better with their overall record of 62-100 (it actually was better than expected). Then they completely flipped the script by finishing 6 games over .500 this year, while posting an overall record of 77-85. That is roughly 10 games better than a team with their record would have performed on average.

All these numbers are to illustrate that while Miami should be proud of the fact that they overachieved this year, they should be cautious with their optimism. Regression can be cruel for teams that think they have made the leap, and there is little reason to believe that the Marlins should ignore it. This contract extension likely went to the wrong person. Time will tell.

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