PECOTA fixes errors, Marlins come off .500


Ah, as I was mentioning earlier, PECOTA just needed a little tuning.

"The Weighted Means Spreadsheet, PFM, and depth charts were updated Monday morning. Here are some of the fixes and improvements:– you’ll see two new tabs in the Weighted Means Spreadsheet–it now has both playing time projected and PECOTA raw projections.– a lot of work has gone into the translation postprocessing of the PECOTA data, and GB%, BABIP, and defensive projections appear to have been significantly improved. There are still individual players that have interesting results, which we’ll continue to look at.– a clarification: the column in the weighted means spreadsheet GB Out %, not GB%–that is, GBO/(GBO+AO), not GB/BIP.*– four comparable players are now available, and their names are formatted to be easier to read.– the closer issue has been fixed.– the holds issue has been fixed.– the quality starts issue has been fixed.– players have been added. Please comment on additional players we’re missing and we’ll get them in there too.– player R and RBI now scale to the team run environment.– a few pitchers have been assigned >30 starts, which was treated as a hard cap in previous runs."

Of course, that all refers to the recently released Depth Charts, which include projected standings. There were some internally inconsistent problems that BP has gone back and fixed, and the revised Depth Charts are now up. As a consequence of these fixes, it appears as if the Marlins have been realigned to a .500 record at 81-81, right in line with what I calculated was CHONE’s 50th percentile guess. Of course, I don’t have access to anything else from PECOTA, so I don’t know how well the Weighted Means Playing Time spreadsheet agrees with what is likely to occur. But projecting a .500 season for the Marlins is right around correct; they were an 83-win team last year in Pythagorean, component Pythagorean (the BtB power rankings without the league adjustment), and in total team WAR. I suspect they’ll be similar this season, with very little changing but an expected net positive.

The point here is that it just goes to show you that most of these projections are more or less in line with each other. Now, how the CAIRO projections run through DiamondMind had the Marlins at 74 wins on average is beyond me, but I guess weird stuff happens.