Bold Predictions for Miami Marlins Second Half of 2015

By Ehsan Kassim |

3 of 4

May 13, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Jarred Cosart reacts after surrendering consecutive home runs in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The Marlins defeated the Dodgers 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As part of our Opening Day coverage, my former co-editor, Travis Honeycutt, and I made bold predictions for the 2015 Miami Marlins season. Each of us made 3 predictions, with most them missing the mark, although I did get one right.

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Travis’ 3 predictions included two that are still have time to play themselves out, but the one that he made that didn’t pan out was Dan Haren becoming an All-Star. And on the surface, using just his ERA, Haren had a case. But the rest of the body of work didn’t garner him a spot in the mid-summer classic.

Travis also predicted that the four Miami Marlins would hit 25 home runs (this sounds like a bad joke now) and Jose Fernandez firing a no-hitter (which is still very possible).

My incorrect prediction was a bounce back season from Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which didn’t quite happen. Salty posted a .069/.182/.207 slash line with a 9 wRC+ in just 33 plate appearances. On April 27th, the team designated Saltalamacchia for assignment, a move which I felt was a mistake at the time, and actually still feel the same way. Salty owns a 84 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances with the D-Backs, and is still a better player than one Jeff Mathis.

My prediction of a major Marlins trade deadline move was also wrong, as I felt the Marlins would make a move to add someone to help them contend, but I’ll amend that one and tweak it to the current Miami Marlins situation below.

The prediction I got right? Jarred Cosart would be out of the rotation by the time Jose Fernandez returns:

If Cosart has similar issues with his control in the early months of the season, he could certainly pitch his way out of the rotation. Koehler and Dan Haren, while not completely superior options, have bigger track records of major league success and a fast start for either could propel them ahead of Cosart in the pecking order.

Cosart’s downfall in 2015 has been his control issues, as he’s walked 32 in 65 combined innings in the minors and majors.

Score one for me, although it’s not one I am too happy to see happen, as the team gave up a lot for Cosart last July.

Now let’s look at my 3 bold predictions for the second half of the 2015 season.

Next: Stanton Hits 50 Home Runs

Jun 23, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) hits a two run home run in the first inning of a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

1. Stanton Will Hit 50 Home Runs

I was going to make this prediction of 45 home runs, but Stanton has hit 27 in 74 games and 318 plate appearances this season. ZiPS projects him to hit 18 more over 69 games and 272 plate appearances. So 45 didn’t feel that bold anymore.

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I decided to take it a step further. 50 home runs is my bold prediction for Giancarlo Stanton to finish the 2015 season with. He’s already more than halfway to that mark.

Gary Sheffield‘s 42 home runs in 1996 for the then Florida Marlins is the franchise record Stanton has chased since he reached the major leagues.

Asking for 23 home runs from 272 plate appearances might be asking a lot from Stanton, but let’s remember he hit 21 home runs in 201 plate appearances from May 6th to June 26th, the day he suffered the broken bone in his hand.

If Stanton returns by August 1st, he should be able to play in 68 games, which should get him enough at bats to make this 50 home run fantasy a reality.

Giancarlo Stanton is a freak of nature and when it comes to making bold predictions for him, they have to be bigger and bolder.

Next: Fernandez throws a no-hitter?

Jul 9, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) reacts from the dugout after the Marlins defeated the Cincinnati Reds 2-0 at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

2. Jose Fernandez will throw a no-hitter, 3 complete game shutouts

I will keep alive Travis’ bold prediction from the preseason and say that Fernandez will throw a no-hitter by season’s end. His best chance may actually be Friday, when he takes on the Philadelphia Phillies, the worst team in the majors.

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I will also add-on that Jose will finish the season with 3 complete game shutouts. Fernandez has never pitched a complete game in his major league career, but that should change soon.

Last time out, Jose Fernandez threw seven beautiful shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds. In that start, he struck out 9 and did not walk a single hitter. Fernandez threw just 94 pitches in that start.

As the season wears on, the Miami Marlins will likely loosen the leash on Fernandez and let him work up to 110-115 pitches. If he can avoid walks and get hitters out efficiently, that’s all the pitches it might take for him to throw a complete game shutout.

And one of those from Jose isn’t good enough for me. I want three, as well as his first career no-hitter. If he can throw that in Atlanta, somewhere between August 6th to 9th, when I expect to be in attendance, that would be absolutely fantastic.

Next: Big Deadline Deal?

Jun 9, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Miami Marlins third baseman Martin Prado (14) reacts to a hit during the first inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

3. Marlins make a surprising, bold trade at the trade deadline

Alright, so here is the amended bold prediction I promised. The Miami Marlins are not contenders and aren’t going to be looking to add any pieces to the core for this season. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be looking to add pieces to the team next season.

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While names like a Dan Haren and a Mat Latos are expected to be sold by the Marlins for whatever they can get at the trade deadline, the Marlins could shake things up if they put Martin Prado on the block.

Prado is usually a highly sought after name, due to his clubhouse leadership, consistent play, and versatility to play multiple positions. Besides Ben Zobrist, players like Prado are not easy to find.

If the Marlins were to trade Prado and package him with Mat Latos, maybe the team could get a bigger return to help boost not only their farm system, but also their talent level for the 2016 season and beyond.

A Prado-Latos package could make sense for many contenders, like the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Orioles. If the team can come away with a decent package from any of those teams, they’ll be better off in the long-run.

The team says Prado is not available right now, which makes sense. He still fits into what the team wants to do in 2016. But for the right price, usually everyone becomes available.

The Miami Marlins shocked the baseball world by dealing prospects Colin Moran and Jake Marisnick to land Jarred Cosart (still a terrible trade in my view) last July.

Could they shock the baseball world with another bold trade this July?

Follow Marlin Maniac on Twitter @MarlinManiac for all your Miami Marlins news, opinion and analysis!

Next: Marlins: Halfway Point Reflections and Thoughts

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