A week from today, we will be hours away from the July 31st trading deadline, with teams scrambling to finalize trade talks and send the paperwork into the commissioner’s office.
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We know the Miami Marlins could be relatively active at the trade deadline. The team has established they’d like to move Mat Latos and Steve Cishek, while listening to offers on Dan Haren. The team is also exploring the idea of shipping free agent signing from this off-season, Michael Morse, back to San Francisco. The team is even rumored to be open to the idea of trading Marcell Ozuna.
The team is also established which players they have little to no interest in moving, as they will look to contend during the 2016 season. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Martin Prado and Tom Koehler are two guys the team isn’t looking to move.
"The Marlins are fielding calls of interest in Dan Haren, who’s been exceptional this year, Mat Latos and Steve Cishek, who has an ERA under 1 since returning from a minor-league stint, as Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reported … They’ve gotten calls on Tom Koehler and Martin Prado but thus far have no interest in moving them"
We all know that the team has not considered moving Prado for a while now. He is under contract for a reasonable $11 million (with the Yankees paying $3M) for the 2016 season. The team also has no infield depth in the minors and seem allergic to the idea of giving Derek Dietrich regular playing time.
The Miami Marlins probably should not look to trade Prado unless they get an offer they cannot refuse for his services. Prado fits into the Marlins timeline of wanting to contend next season.
Prado owns a .274/.314/.370 slash line with a 90 wRC+ and a 1.1 fWAR in 300 plate appearances this season. ZiPS projects him to finish the season at a 2.1 fWAR, right above league average. Prado is likely good for the same type of production next season.
What you usually see from Prado is what you get. His sturdy defense carries the majority of his value.
Tom Koehler, however, should be a sell-high candidate for the Miami Marlins. He is coming off a 7-inning shutout performance against the San Diego Padres last night, where he struck out 7 and walked 4.
On the season, Koehler owns a overachieving 3.16 ERA. However, his underlying peripherals suggest he is due for some regression, as his 4.32 FIP and 4.28 xFIP suggest.
Over his last 6 starts, Koehler owns a 1.62 ERA and a 3.73 FIP, suggesting he is pitching the best he has in his career. He’s a more than serviceable 5th starter, which carries some trade value as teams try to sure up the back-ends of their rotation, seeking a playoff spot.
With the recent news that Henderson Alvarez has been shutdown indefinitely due to continued troubles with his shoulder, Koehler becomes less expendable for the Miami Marlins.
The team needs starters to not just finish this season, but be on the staff next season. Alvarez is a major question mark at this point, and Haren and Latos seem like goners after the season, with both hitting free agency at the season’s end.
While Koehler was someone the team was seeking to move earlier in the season, it seems the Alvarez setback should keep him in Miami, at least through the season’s end. Koehler will be arbitration eligible for the first time this off-season.
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