I wrote about Trevor Rogers and him still being an ace and then what I thought was going wrong with him. It’s clear that things are much worse than I originally thought and now it makes sense to take another look at him. Rogers’s terrible performance during the recent doubleheader with the Colorado Rockies was especially concerning as it continued a string of bad starts. What’s wrong with him? What should the Miami Marlins do about him?
Trevor Rogers may no longer be an ace for the Miami Marlins
Trevor Rogers broke out last season with a 7-8 record and a 2.64 ERA/2.55 FIP with 10.62 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9 in 25 games and 133.0 innings pitched. This season hasn’t been as good for Rogers, as he’s currently at 2-5 5.80 ERA/5.19 FIP with 7.80 K/9 and 4.20 BB/9 in 10 games and 45 innings pitched. He’s not having a good season to put it mildly.
What’s wrong? Let’s dig a little bit deeper… Trevor Rogers mostly throws his fastball (51.9%). Opponents had a .222 BA against it last season, but a .333 BA this season. Interestingly, his secondary pitches have largely stayed the same. Rogers throws a changeup 30.5% of the time and a slider 17.6% of the time. Opponents had a batting average of .199 against his changeup last season and .203 this season. Opponents’ batting average against Rogers’s slider has actually improved from .273 in 2021 to .222 this season.
How are batters doing against Trevor Rogers’ fastball? Rogers is getting less strikeouts with it, as his whiff% last season was 26.8% with it, but this season it’s 22.7%. The fastball’s spin changed from 2375 last season to 2392 this season. The strange thing is that its velocity actually improved from 94.5 to 94.6 mph. Hitters are striking out less and hitting it better. As I said before, I think that he’s tipping it somehow as it’s hard to explain such drastic differences otherwise.
What should the Miami Marlins do with Trevor Rogers? It’s time for the coaches to sit down with him and discuss his fastball. It’s time for them and him to watch video footage of him throwing it and seeing what changes they could make. It’s too early to give up on Rogers, but changes are needed.