Why don’t we see more dynasties? Part 2

This is part 2 of our series, with part 1 here.

NL East is the most successful division in the game at the moment. The Miami Marlins have to remember that dynasties aren’t frequent. The Houston Astros are an anomaly these days with their fourth pennant in six years and their second in a row. That’s not luck. The last annual championship dynasty is the New York Yankees from 1998 to 2000. What happened since 2001?

Why don’t more teams win consecutive World Series?

You can follow along here.

2009 New York Yankees won the World Series, 2010 New York Yankees lost in the ALCS.

LF Johnny Damon hit .282/.365/.489 with 24 HR 82 RBI and DH Hideki Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 with 28 HR 90 RBI. Both were gone as free agents after the 2009 season and not adequately replaced. SS Derek Jeter declined from .334/.406/.465 in 2009 to .270/.340/.370 in 2010 due to aging.

2010 San Francisco Giants won the World Series, 2011 San Francisco Giants missed the playoffs.

1B Aubrey Huff hit .290/.385/.506 in 2010, but declined to hit .246/.306/.370 in 2011, and was out of the Majors after an even worse 2012. SS Juan Uribe had 24 HR and 85 RBI in 2010, but was gone as a free agent after the season with no adequate replacement. They were their top hitters.

2011 St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series, 2012 St. Louis Cardinals lost in the NLCS.

Manager Tony La Russa (retirement) and 1B Albert Pujols (free agency) both left the team after 2011. Pujols was their best hitter: .299/.366/.541 with 37 HR and 99 RBI.

2012 San Francisco Giants won the World Series, 2013 San Francisco Giants missed the playoffs.

Ace Matt Cain declined from 16-5  2.79 ERA/3.40 FIP in 2012 to 8-10  4.00 ERA/3.93 FIP in 2013. SP Ryan Vogelsong declined from 14-9  3.37 ERA/3.70 FIP in 2012 to losing his rotation spot in 2013 with 4-6  5.73 ERA/4.91 FIP.

2013 Boston Red Sox won the World Series, 2014 Boston Red Sox missed the playoffs.

1B Mike Napoli produced 23 HR and 92 RBI in 2013, but declined to hit 17 HR and 55 RBI in 2014. RF Shane Victorino batted .294/.351/.451 in 2013, but missed almost the entire 2014 season. CF Jacoby Ellsbury declined from hitting .298/.355/.426 in 2013 to .271/.328/.419 in 2014. SP Clay Buchholz declined from 12-1  1.74 ERA/2.78 FIP in 2013 to 8-11  5.34 ERA/4.01 FIP in 2014.

2014 San Francisco Giants won the World Series, 2015 San Francisco Giants missed the playoffs.

RF Hunter Pence produced 20 HR and 74 RBI in 2014, but missed most of the 2015 season. 3B Pablo Sandoval hit .279/.324/.415 in 2914, but only .245/.292/.366 in 2015. 38 year old SP Tim Hudson had a 3.57 ERA/3.54 FIP in 2014, but aging made him have a 4.44 ERA/4.53 FIP in 2015.

2015 Kansas City Royals won the World Series, 2016 Kansas City Royals missed the playoffs.

SP Chris Young went 11-6  3.06 ERA/4.52 FIP in 2015 clearly overachieving, in 2016 he declined to 3-9  6.19 ERA/6.62 FIP and lost his rotation spot. SP Edinson Vólquez declined from 13-9  3.55 ERA/3.82 FIP in 2015 to 10-11 5.37 ERA/4.57 FIP in 2016. 3B Mike Moustakas hit .284/.348/.470 with 22 HR 82 RBI in 2015, but was injured for most of the 2016 season.

2016 Chicago Cubs won the World Series, 2017 Chicago Cubs lost in the NLCS

Their rotation overachieved.. Jon Lester went from 19-5  2.44 ERA/3.41 FIP in 2016 to 13-8  4.33 ERA/4.10 FIP in 2017; Jake Arrieta went from 18-8  3.10 ERA/3.52 FIP in 2016 to 14-10  3.53 ERA/4.16 FIP in 2017; John Lackey went from 11-8  3.35 ERA/3.81 FIP in 2016 to 12-12  4.59 ERA/5.30 FIP in 2017. 3B Kris Bryant declined from 39 HR and 102 RBI in 2016 to 29 HR and 73 RBI in 2017.

To be continued…