Can the Miami Marlins still make the playoffs?

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This isn't a great time to be a Miami Marlins fan. The Fish lost 6 games in a row, and are now 0.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card playoff spot. This isn't that bad of a deficit, but considering the losing streak and the competition, you can understand the concern. The positives are that Bruce Sherman is saying all of the right things. We already know what the Trade Deadline strategy is going to be and who some targets could be.

Can the Miami Marlins still make the playoffs?

Let's forget about winning the NL East, that 10 game deficit seems solid. What about a Wild Card spot? The teams ahead are the Philadelphia Phillies (0.5 games ahead). There are also the Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5) and the San Francisco Giants (1.5). Fangraphs has their projections for these teams: 46.5% chance of making the playoffs for The Fish; 65.5% for Philly; 74.1% for San Francisco; 62.7% for Arizona.

Philly and Arizona are projected for 87 wins, San Francisco for 88 and The Fish for 85. It's very close in other words. I'm pretty skeptical on both San Francisco and Arizona. Let's start with San Francisco. Their pitching isn't an issue, but I just don't buy their lineup.

C Patrick Bailey has overachieved with his .276/.309/.462 batting line due to his insanely high BABIP. He's projected to bat .232/.295/.376 going forward. 1B LaMonte Wade Jr. also overachieved and is expected to bat .244/.354/.407 going forward. 2B Thairo Estrada is injured. SS Brandon Crawford is batting .207/.285/.333 and isn't expected to get much better.

3B J.D. Davis is projected for .250/.339/.411. LF Michael Conforto is projected for .251/.346/.425 going forward... assuming he stays healthy. CF Luis Matos is projected for .263/..316/.399. RF Mike Yastrzemski is projected for .23/.325/.430. Finally, DH Joc Pederson is batting .235/.361//.417 and is projected to slightly improve. No one in that lineup is hitting well for average or is projected for a good power year. I see them as overachieving so far.

The Arizona Diamondbacks look flukey to me too. Their rotation is top-heavy with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The rest of the rotation has a 5.36 combined ERA. The bullpen is a mess, as they can't seem to settle on a closer. Their lineup has big holes too. SS Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat .238/.334/.434 after batting .278/.387/.414 so far. 3B Emmanuel Rivera is batting .283/.319/.382, but is expected to hit .255/.309/.416 going forward. CF Alek Thomas is batting .235/.273/.396 with not much improvement expected. RF Jake McCarthy is batting .254/.333/.355....

Arizona and San Francisco can improve at the trade deadline, but so can the Miami Marlins. The Fish look better than both of those teams.

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