Confusing reasoning for the Miami Marlins not issuing Jorge Soler a QO

Jorge Soler
Jorge Soler / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages

I wrote about the Miami Marlins needing to offer free agent designated hitter Jorge Soler a Qualifying Offer. It didn't happen of course, and we weren't sad about him being gone. Conflicting reports from yesterday make the whole situation more peculiar. The reports are that The Fish want to re-sign him for a multi-year deal. This is creating a really bizarre situation that I'd like to discuss.

The Miami Marlins are looking bad for not giving Jorge Soler a Qualifying Offer.

Teams typically offer Qualifying Offers to players who they expect to reject them. This way they can receive draft pick compensation if they don't end up re-signing with the team. It's typically expected that these are also players who the team wouldn't mind having back at the QO price, if the player chooses to accept instead.

Players who don't receive QO's are players who the team expects to accept and who they don't think is worth the QO. This typical reasoning implies that the Miami Marlins and PBO Peter Bendix expected Soler to accept, and didn't think that he was worth the price. This is where the reports that The Fish want to re-sign him come into play.

Jorge Soler was paid $15 million for the 2023 season, and after a 36 home run season is not taking a pay cut. If the Miami Marlins are looking to re-sign him, the cost will likely be $15-16 million a year for 3 years. His projected next contract is 3 years/$45 million, which is 3 years/$15 million a year. So if The Fish want him back, why not issue him a QO? It doesn't make any sense.

If Soler rejects, then The Fish get a draft pick. If he accepts, then The Fish get him back and pay less overall money while only overpaying by $5 million for the year. $5 million shouldn't be that big of a deterrent. It's a weak hitter's market, so sometimes paying extra for convenience is simply just necessary. Who else do the Miami Marlins expect to sign or trade for to replace him now?

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