How do the Miami Marlins look in the updated playoff odds?

Jorge Soler
Jorge Soler / Megan Briggs/GettyImages

I've been pretty obsessed with the Miami Marlins making the playoffs, and the losing streaks were heartbreaking. I didn't give up hope. After winning the series against the New York Yankees at home, with Sandy Alcantara making history, then beating the Houston Astros 5-1 last night... How does Fangraphs see the MLB Postseason picture shaping up now?

Can the Miami Marlins make the playoffs?

The Miami Marlins have not made the playoffs in a full regular season since 2003. Yes, 2003. The last time that The Fish got in it was 2020, in the shortened season due to the pandemic. How does the playoff picture look like? The Fangraphs projections change daily, but they're vey revealing and tell us where teams stand.

It makes sense to look at the entire MLB, to get a better sense of how the playoff picture is looking for us going forward. Let's start with the AL East, where the Baltimore Orioles now have a 59.7% chance of winning the division. Their only competition is the Tampa Bay Rays (36.6%). The Minnesota Twins have the AL Central on lock at 90.5%, with the Cleveland Guardians in second place with an 8.7% chance of winning it.

The AL West is a toss-up between the Texas Rangers (55.7%) and the Houston Astros (40.7%). What about the AL Wild Cards? The Toronto Blue Jays (65.2%), Tampa Bay Rays (60.9%) and the Houston Astros (47.9%) are the projected teams. The Texas Rangers are in the conversation too (38.6% if they lose out on the division to Houston), and the Seattle Mariners (25.1%).

Turning over to the NL East...the Atlanta Braves have a 99.9% chance of winning the division! That means they're practically guaranteed to win it. The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to win the NL Central (69.2%). The Chicago Cubs are their only real competition at this point (24.4%). The Los Angeles Dodgers have the NL West on lock (98.5%).

How about the NL Wild Card teams? The Philadelphia Phillies (84.8%), San Francisco Giants (60.4%) and the Miami Marlins (54.0%). The Fish have a higher than 50% chance of making the playoffs! The other teams in contention are the Chicago Cubs (29.8%), Cincinnati Reds (17.9%), San Diego Padres (17.4%) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (16.8%). Milwaukee (15.8%) are in it too if they lose out on their division.

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