Marlins trade piece probably won't bring back as much as you think

The focus of the fans and team executives is now on the Trade Deadline. The Miami Marlins are at the very least already moving on from players. There is a free agent to be that The Fish are fully expected to trade. The player that I'm talking about is of course closer Tanner Scott. Is he going to net the team as much as we think? Is he someone that Peter Bendix should regret trading?

Miami Marlins closer Tanner Scott may not be as valuable as many fans think.

It seems to be common for many fans to overrate players and value them differently than executives in the game. I briefly fell into that mistaken analysis myself. Case in point is current San Diego Padres DH Luis Arraez. The elite contact hitter and batting champion was seen as an elite player by the fans, but not by executives. Executives on his defensive limitations, lack of speed and lack of power. As a result, the return for him was underwhelming and led to frustration among fans, who expected far more.

I'm becoming increasingly concerned that the same fate awaits closer Tanner Scott. I expect Scott to get a better return by far, based on how valuable relievers are, but I wonder if his value won't be limited by his...well limitations and red flags. Tanner Scott has a 3.1 WAR, a 1.24 ERA and 10.3 K/9 on the season, in 42 games and 43.2 innings pitched (as of July 24, 2024). At the same time he has a 3.23 FIP and 5.2 BB/9.

I worry that Scott's history of control issues and the solid but unimpressive FIP are going to hurt his value. Remember, from 2017 to 2022 he produced a 4.61 ERA/3.91 FIP, with 12.3 K/9 but 5.8 BB/9. That lack of a track record of success will hurt him too. I do see his success this season as indicative of a high return, but I wonder if it'll be as high as people expect it to be. Tanner Scott is a great reliever, but has concerning underlying metrics.