We now know who won the Luis Arraez/Pablo Lopez Miami Marlins/Minnesota trade

The Fish traded Pablo Lopez to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in 2023
Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez / Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

Luis Arraez is no longer a member of the Miami Marlins. The former batting champ was traded to the San Diego Padres. It was only last year when The Fish acquired him from the Minnesota Twins in the first place. The key player going the other way was SP Pablo Lopez. With Arraez now gone, a question comes up....who ultimately won this trade?

The Miami Marlins and the Minnesota Twins made a big trade last year.

Luis Arraez batted .314/.374/.410 in 389 games and 1413 AB. He was worth 10.1 WAR for that time. Pablo Lopez pitched for the Miami Marlins from 2018 to 2022, producing a 3.94 ERA/3.77 FIP in 94 games and 510.0 innings pitched. He was worth 8.6 WAR for that time. It was close between the two, but Arraez was clearly better and healthier. Pablo's ceiling also seemed to be as more of a mid-rotation starter. A couple Minor Leaguers were traded by The Fish as well, but let's focus on these two as those haven't even made it up to the Majors.

In 2023, Arraez has batted .354/.393/.469, with 10 home runs and 69 RBI in147 games and 574 AB, with 10 home runs and 69 RBI. He was worth 4.9 WAR. In 2024 prior to being traded to San Diego, Arraez has batted .299/.347/.372, with 0 home runs and 5 RBI in 33 games and 137 AB. He's been worth 0.3 WAR. That's a total of 5.2 WAR for his time with The Fish.

Pablo Lopez produced a 3.66 ERA/3.33 FIP, with 10.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9, in 32 games and 194.0 innings pitched. He was worth 3.3 WAR. As Arraez was traded to San Diego this season, Pablo has been sitting on a 4.30 ERA/3.48 FIP, with 10.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 7 games and 32.2 innings pitched. He's been worth 0.3 WAR so far. That's 3.6 WAR total.

Looking at it overall: Luis Arraez has been worth 5.2 WAR and Pablo Lopez has ben worth 3.6 WAR. As a result, it's fair to say that the Miami Marlins won the trade as Arraez has been the better player.

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