We were wrong about former Marlins hitter's value

Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez / Norm Hall/GettyImages

This is probably the last time I'm going to talk about Luis Arraez. It's the biggest story out there regarding the Miami Marlins and I feel that a bit more has to be said. It hasn't been a popular move and I've seen a lot of criticisms from other fans. I do also notice takes that I just don't agree with. I would like to look at this objectively. My biggest issue was Peter Bendix not getting enough.

Luis Arraez's value is misunderstood by many Miami Marlins fans.

I was a fan of Luis Arraez when he played for the Miami Marlins. I thought that he had a great attitude and was the best lead-off hitter in the game. In 2023, he batted .354/.393/.469, with 10 home runs and 69 RBI in 147 games and 574 AB. He had a 0.6 dWAR and was worth 4.9 WAR overall. He was great.

This season prior to the trade, he was batting .299/.347/.372, with 0 home runs and 5 RBI in 33 games and 137 AB. He had a -0.3 dWAR and was worth 0.2 WAR overall. Luis Arraez has been an elite contact hitter throughout his time with The Fish, but he's not a power hitter, is not a fast runner and is not really a second baseman. He's also a free agent after next season.

The Miami Marlins are not going to the playoffs this season, but next season is a question mark. Keeping Arraez for a playoff run next season made sense, though that of course depended on the team getting healthier and making improvements next off-season. Arraez's trade value is of course highest the more team control that he has.

What options did The Fish have? A. Let him play until free agency. B. Trade him at next year's Trade Deadline if the team isn't going to the playoffs. C. Trade him at this year's Trade Deadline. D. Trade him in the off-season. E. Extend him. F. Trade him ASAP. We can rule out option D as trading him before next season might as well be done at the Trade Deadline this year. A doesn't benefit the team much and B gives the lowest return in a trade, though that's only if the team isn't going to the playoffs.

E can be ruled out because if his contact skills decline, he's not very valuable at all. He's not fit for second base and lacks the power for first base. He would also clog up DH if moved there. He's basically a player without a real position. Notice that he's now a DH in San Diego.

If Luis Arraez's contact goes, so does his value. There was no reason for the Miami Marlins to risk things, so this leaves us with the obvious decision to trade him. The question is when. The earlier the better is the answer to receive the most value back. The one thing that we don't know, is whether there were better offers out there. It's a bit silly to beieve that Peter Bendix just took the first offer out there. He must have called around first. Of course he still could've missed out on something.

Luis Arraez's limitations make him a tough fit to extend and in a losing season, trading him makes all of the sense in the world. The only question is whether this was the best return, however only the executives know the answer to that.

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