The Miami Marlins lost a big trade that shouldn't have happened

In a memorable trade, the Miami Marlins shipped starting pitcher Pablo Lopez essentially to the Minnesota Twins for second baseman Luis Arraez. It was not a good trade at the end of the day. Which team ultimately did better? Minnesota extended Lopez later on, while The Fish traded Arraez to the San Diego Padres in another questionable trade.

Who won the trade between the Miami Marlins and Minnesota?

The best way to see who won the trade is by looking at WAR that the players provided for their respective teams. Pablo Lopez pitched from 2018 to 2022 for the Miami Marlins. He pitched to a 3.94 ERA/3.77 FIP, with 8.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 94 games and 510.0 innings pitched. He was worth 8.6 WAR for that time. That's a decent mark, but he was injured quite a bit unfortunately.

In his time with the Minnesota Twins, he so far pitched to a 3.77 ERA/3.48 FIP, with 10.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, in 67 games and 396.0 innings pitched. He was worth 6.3 WAR for his 2023-2025 run so far. He will of course add to that WAR as he will continue pitching for the team going forward.

Luis Arraez on the other hand, played for the Miami Marlins in 2023 and a part of the 2024 season. In 2023, he batted .354/.393/.469, with 10 home runs and 69 RBI, in 147 games and 574 AB. He was worth 4.6 WAR. In 2024, he only played in 33 games and received 137 AB before being traded. He batted .299/.347/.372, with 0 home runs and 5 RBI and was worth 0.1 WAR.

Putting it all together, Luis Arraez has been worth 4.7 WAR for his entire time with The Fish. Pablo Lopez has been worth 6.3 WAR for his time with Minnesota. Based on WAR, it's clear that the Minnesota Twins have won the trade. It's sad to admit, but Pablo did more for his team, than Arraez did for ours. Of course, we don't know how Arraez would've done if he stayed longer, or if someone else was acquired for Pablo.