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Three Moves that Sunk the Miami Marlins in 2015 and Beyond

By Ehsan Kassim |
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Jul 29, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Ichiro Suzuki (51) is tagged out by Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) in the fourth inning as umpire Mark Ripperger looks on at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Last July, the Miami Marlins were on a great track to be a contending team by 2016, maybe even 2015 at the earliest. With Andrew Heaney, Colin Moran, and Jake Marisnick, the Marlins had a decent farm system and an outfield that was the envy of the league. 

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Flash forward one year, the Miami Marlins future doesn’t look as great. The outfield is potentially down one man, with Marcell Ozuna struggling a bit in 2015, their starting pitching is in shambles, and the farm system will probably the worst in baseball, after the Tigers complete their sale of David Price and Yoenis Cespedes. The 2016 season does not look as bright as it did a year ago.

What has changed in the past 12 months that has changed the course of the Marlins’ franchise?

Well, I’ll argue three moves (or non-moves) have set the franchise back: Drafting Tyler Kolek over Carlos Rodon, the Jarred Cosart trade, and the Dee Gordon trade.

Let’s take a further look into each.

Next: Kolek over Rodon?

Jul 21, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (55) throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler Kolek over Carlos Rodon? Why?:

Entering the 2015 MLB amateur draft, it was almost a guarantee that Carlos Rodon would go #1 or #2. As we got closer to the draft, it was rumored that the Astros had talked to Brady Aiken, to cut a deal and work out a more manageable signing bonus for the number 1 pick. What happened next with Aiken is a long-story and does not concern us, however.

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With the Astros likely going the Aiken route, it seemed like a forgone conclusion Rodon would be drafted by Miami. , Rodon, a Cuban by nationality, would have been the perfect fit next to ace Jose Fernandez as not only a 1-2 punch, but as marketing for the faces of the Marlins franchise, in a Cuban-heavy population of Miami.

Instead, the Marlins stunned the world and took Tyler Kolek number 2 instead Carlos Rodon. This shook the entire baseball world and Marlins fans alike.

The team that was supposedly planning on going all in to win took a guy that would not be ready for the majors for 4/5 seasons, instead of a guy that could have slotted into their rotation by this season.

Kolek owns a 4.15 ERA and a 4.83 FIP in 84 2/3 innings in Low-A Greensboro. He has struggled missing bats, walking too many hitters, and the reports of his 100 MPH velocity before the draft don’t seem to be the case this year. While Kolek, just 19-years old, still has time to turn things around, he still has a considerable ways to go.

Rodon, on the other hand, owns a 4.09 ERA and a 3.63 FIP in 77 major league innings for the Chicago White Sox. While he’s struggled with nearly 5 walks per game, he’s striking out almost 10 per nine, as a rookie.

Right now, Rodon would be a huge boost to a Miami Marlins rotation that has struggled for much of the season. He’d also be a vastly superior option to the guys the Marlins currently have in their farm system.

Drafting Kolek over Rodon made little sense to me on draft day, it makes even less sense today.

Next: The Cosart Trade

May 13, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Jarred Cosart reacts after surrendering consecutive home runs in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The Marlins defeated the Dodgers 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Jarred Cosart Trade:

This is a trade that still infuriates me. The Miami Marlins added Jarred Cosart to a team that was already pitching heavy, yet light on minor league hitting depth.

They traded a massive haul for Jacob Turner 2.0, and then turned around and let the original Jacob Turner go for nothing, giving up on him way too soon.

What am I talking about? Here’s a look at each player’s career numbers:

[table id=87 /]

One guy was DFA’d by the Marlins, and then eventually traded for scraps to the Chicago Cubs. The other guy was traded for two top hitting prospects in a team’s farm system.

Last July 31st, the Miami Marlins shipped Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick, Francis Martes, and a compensation pick (eventually turned into Daz Cameron) to the Houston Astros for Jarred Cosart, Enrique Hernandez, and Austin Wates.

Neither Moran nor Marisnick are lighting the world on fire for the Astros, but both could have been of assistance for the Marlins this season. Marisnick would have provided security for when Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich have all missed time due to performance and injuries. Moran would have been a long-term answer at third.

The compensation pick part of the deal is confusing, but the Marlins have already dealt their pick for the 2016 draft, and did so with the 2014 pick, so there is a pattern developing there.

The trade took from a Marlins weakness and added to (at the time) a strength. Enrique Hernandez, as we’ll discuss below, was essentially thrown into the Dee Gordon trade to offset some of the cash the Dodgers sent the Marlins way.

Austin Wates is no longer on the Marlins 40-man roster and has not even sniffed the major leagues this year, despite the Marlins issues with performance and injuries in the outfield.

While Cosart pitched decently last year in 2 months with the Marlins, posting a 2.39 ERA and a 3.32 FIP in 64 innings, he’s come crashing back down to earth in 2015. Cosart owns a 5.36 ERA and a 5.19 FIP in 45 1/3 innings, battling control issues much of the season. He is currently on the minor league disabled list, with vertigo.

Now, while some people might point to the Marlins dealing Francis Martes as the worst part of this deal, I’m not going to do that. Martes owned a 5.18 ERA and a 3.42 FIP in 33 innings in Rookie ball for the Marlins last season. This year with the Astros, he’s exploded and owns a 1.04 ERA and a 2.77 FIP in 52 innings in Low-A, recently being promoted to Double-A.

The trade for Jarred Cosart confused me at the time of consummation, now a full-year later, I still don’t get the move. It’s hurt the franchise more than helped it at this point.

Next: The Gordon Trade

July 26, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Andrew Heaney (28) reacts during the third inning after allowing a run against the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Dee Gordon Trade:

I know this is the trade that’s going to get the most kick back from Miami Marlins fans for me calling this a mistake for the team. The thing is, the problem does not lie in Dee Gordon, rather, it’s the value the team gave up, so the Dodgers would cover the salaries of Dan Haren and Dee Gordon. 

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Around this time, reportedly the Marlins started to rate Justin Nicolino as a better pitching prospect than Andrew Heaney. This was a major mistake, as Heaney was universally rated as a top 100 prospect that could develop into a 2/3 starter for the team long-term.

Instead, the team preferred the pitch-to-contact, cannot strike many guys out pitcher in Justin Nicolino. The team was not concerned with his lack of strikeouts in Double-A for whatever reason.

This came to a head when the team negotiated with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Dee Gordon trade. Reportedly, the Dodgers initially asked the Marlins for Justin Nicolino, figuring Andrew Heaney would be off-limits.

I did not mind the Marlins trading for Dee Gordon at all. But I stated before the trade on Twitter that I would not trade Heaney straight up for Gordon. So if we remove him from the deal and insert Nicolino instead, the trade starts to look better.

The confusing thing about Heaney is how the team made him untouchable at the 2014 trade deadline, but were almost literally giving him away during the off-season. Apparently less than 30 major league innings were enough to convince the Marlins that Heaney was not going to make it in the majors. How wrong they are.

A package of Justin Nicolino, Austin Barnes, Enrique Hernandez, and Chris Hatcher for Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, and Miguel Rojas looks a lot more respectable and is probably universally hailed.

Instead of Nicolino, the Marlins have Heaney beginning the season in the minors and eventually joining the Marlins rotation to help. He has a 1.79 ERA and a 3.02 FIP in 40 innings for the Angels this season.

Now if we take it a step farther and remove the cash the Dodgers had to send over to Miami, you can probably remove Barnes or Hernandez from the trade, and it looks like a very fair deal for both sides. A Nicolino, Hatcher, and one of Barnes/Hernandez trade for Gordon and Haren seems fair for both sides.

Instead, the Marlins went the cheap route, while also being misguided about Heaney and Nicolino. A double whammy that is killing the Fish today.

Follow Marlin Maniac on Twitter @MarlinManiac for all your Miami Marlins news, opinion and analysis!

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