In-depth analysis of Miami Marlins pick Noble Meyer

I wrote about the first round Miami Marlins pick Noble Meyer, but I didn't go in-depth on him. I'm doing this today! You can read what we wrote about the other draft picks and how we analyzed them. I haven't been the biggest fan of this pick, so let's see what we can really expect here. Can picking a high schooler work out here?

The Miami Marlins drafted high school pitcher Noble Meyer in the first round.

Noble Meyer is an 18 year old 6'5 right-hander who has a 97-98 mph fastball. The size and fastball velocity are pretty impressive to say the least. He apparently can even get to 100 mph. He also has a very promising slider and a solid changeup. He's reported to have "excellent arm speed" as well. As you can clearly see, his stuff is supposed to be pretty good. He's said to have "a good feel" for the strike zone as well.

It's pretty obvious that Noble Meyer has good stuff. Scouts give his fastball a 60 rating; his slider a 55 rating; his changeup a 50 rating; his control a 50 rating and give him an overall 55 rating. This is all promising, but again it's all based on how he did against high school bats. We don't know yet how he'll do against older professional competition. The biggest thing concerning is me is the track record of high school draft picks.

I found an interesting article that makes me very concerned. Almost half (!) of hard-throwing high school pitchers drafted to the Majors end up having elbow injuries. Do you remember Tyler Kolek? He's mentioned in the article and it's pretty sad stuff. He was a Miami Marlins prospect with a 99 mph fastball. The #2 pick of the 2014 draft had control issues in the Minors, and ended up getting elbow surgery. He never did make it to the Major Leagues.

I'm not saying that Noble Meyer is the next Tyler Kolek. I'm not saying that Meyer will get an elbow injury. I'm saying that he was a very risky draft pick, and I'm concerned about how things will go for him going forward.