There's no debate, this has been a pretty bad off-season for the Miami Marlins. Kim Ng has done a terrible job as The Fish's GM so far, though we can argue over if it was entirely her fault, or also largely Bruce Sherman's as well. Bruce Sherman is likely not giving Kim enough payroll, but she's not doing the right job with trades regardless. Either way, it's painful to watch our division rivals like the New York Mets take this time to get better. I did however notice something...
The Miami Marlins may be watching the New York Mets make a serious mistake.
Let's get something out of the way, Steve Cohen is a great owner. The way he spends on the New York Mets to legitimately try to win is amazing (pun intended upon realizing it). I can only wish that the Miami Marlins had an owner like that. That aside, not every investment in a top free agent is going to work out. I strongly suspect that the New York Mets signing Justin Verlander as their new ace, will not work as well as they think it will. First of all, he's a replacement for Jacob deGrom, who is simply put better than Verlander. Since 2019, deGrom was worth 15.6 WAR and won the NL Cy Young award. Fangraphs projects him to pitch 172 innings of 2.65 ERA ball in 2023.
What about Justin Verlander? He was worth 13.5 WAR since 2019 and won the AL Cy Young award. He's projected for a 3.33 ERA in 190 innings in 2023. deGrom is clearly supposed to be better next season. Add in the fact that he's 34 years old and that Verlander is 39, and you can see the dilemma. Players tend to start to decline at 35, and even if Verlander is still elite now, the downfall will happen no matter what, and the only questions is "when". You can count on one hand how many were still elite at his age.
This is where Randy Johnson comes in... Like Verlander, Johnson left a Southern team to go to New York. To be fair, he was 2 years older than Verlander is now, but he also didn't have Verlander's recent injury history. Johnson had a 2.60 ERA/2.30 FIP in 245. 2 innings in 2004 for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He had a 3.79 ERA/3.78 FIP in 225.2 innings for the New York Yankees in 2005. If the Miami Marlinsare lucky, Justin Verlander will be closer to Randy Johnson.