Playoff odds for the Marlins and NL East rivals are eye-opening

The Miami Marlins are not expected to make the playoffs
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. / Harry How/GettyImages

Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving back to lead-off make a change in the outlook for the Miami Marlins this season? Will Bryce Harper lead the Philadelphia Phillies to a World Series? Will Ronald Acuna Jr. lead the Atlanta Braves to another division title? We certainly hope that last off-season went better. Let's take a look at who will make the playoffs according to Fangraphs.

The Miami Marlins won't make the playoffs but who will?

As of May 10, The New York Yankees are projected to win the AL East with a 47.5%. The Baltimore Orioles have the second best chance with 40.0%. Turning to the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins have a massive 56.2% chance to win the division, well ahead of the Cleveland Guardians with a 21.4% chance. The Kansas City Royals are grossly underrated at 14.1%. The AL West is expected to go to the Seattle Mariners with a 43.9%, with the Texas Rangers 33.2%. The Houston Astros are third at 21.2%. I expect Texas to be closer to Seattle.

Baltimore is expected to take the top AL Wild Card spot at 45.8%, with the Tampa Bay Rays taking the second spot at 36.3% and Cleveland taking the third at 24.7%. I don't see any AL Central team making the playoffs as a Wild Card. I'm also surprised that they don't expect Texas to make the playoffs. I see both Texas and Seattle as playoff teams.

Strangely, the Atlanta Braves have a 73.2% chance to win the NL East. I see the Philadelphia Phillies as better this season, though they stand at 23.0%. The Miami Marlins are at a horrible 0.0%. Yes, 0.0%. I didn't even think that was possible. The NL Central favorites are the Chicago Cubs at 49.3%, with the Milwaukee Brewers coming in as the second most likely at 36.0%. The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to win the NL West at 93.2%.

The NL Wild Card teams don't include the Miami Marlins. Philly are projected to get the first spot at 67.2%. Strangely, the San Diego Padres are next at 47.9% for the second spot. The third spot is projected to go to the Arizona Diamondbacks at 33.9%. I don't see either San Diego or Arizona making the playoffs. Maybe San Diego I guess. I could see the second place NL Central team getting the third spot.

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