1. THE PHILADELPHIA BULLPEN IS A MESS
"Pitching wins championships" as the old adage goes. Bullpens are a very huge part of that. Just look at the 2015 Kansas City Royals for example. The Boston Red Sox failed to return to the playoffs in 2019 (after their World Series win in 2018), because they failed to get a closer for that season. Philadelphia Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski knows all about that from his days in Detroit. He never built a good bullpen, and his Tigers teams failed to win at all.
What does all of this bring us to? The Philadelphia Phillies don't actually have a set closer for the 2024 season. They have a group that doesn't look that great according to Fangraphs. NO ONE in their bullpen is projected for an ERA below 3.31. No one except for Jose Alvarado is projected for an ERA below 3.74. NO ONE is projected for an ERA below 3.81. Alvarado is likely to be the closer, but he has serious control issues. He actually has a career 5.1 BB/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 2023. It's hard to necessarily trust him in 2024.
It's interesting to point out that the team is actually only projected for 85 wins in 2024, which is only 5 wins higher than Miami. Could the bullpen lead to a Philadelphia downfall? The Miami Marlins should be there waiting to take advantage.